Answering the 6 Strategic Questions for 2010

It is time to answer our 6 Strategic Questions for 2010. There were major developments

Q1. What will the international community do about Iran?

A: As predicted in our Net Assessment: Iran, the Western powers led by the United States would do - nothing much! Sure, more ''biting'' (read - watered-down) economic sanctions were passed at the UN, but Tehran brazenly defies the international community with impunity. It helps if you follow your own sanctions. Barring an Israeli attack, Iran will become a nuclear state and build the medium and long-range ballistic missiles to wage its jihad. The US still believes diplomacy of appeasement is the necessary elixir and Iran agrees. While the West talks, Tehran builds.

Q2. Will radical Islamic terrorism wax or wane?
A: Radical Islamic terrorism waxed around the globe. Some plots were disrupted with a new wrinkle in the bombers. Radicalized Islamic university students in the United States and United Kingdom - citizens of each - tried to set off bombs, but evidently shun suicide pacts to spare their lives unlike brethren abroad. Also, Al Qaeda franchise groups in the Arabian Peninsula (Yemen - AQAP) and AQIM (Al Qaeda in the Islamic Mahgreb) planted themselves firmly in the international terrorism universe. AQAP attempted to kill the UK ambassador in Sana'a and AQIM squared off against France.

Q3.  What will China’s recent gains in diplomatic currency portend?
A: Beijing continues to build both economic strength and robust military power. China passed Japan to become the world's second largest economy in 2010. Its military modernization includes the stealth J-20 fighter, a ''carrier killer'' missile, and its own aircraft carriers. In a possible preview of Beijing's attitude toward its regional neighbors, China and Japan fussed over the Senkaku Islands leading to the capture and later release of a Chinese fishing captain by Tokyo. China intends to validate its so-called Mandate from Heaven to
rock the world.

Q4.  Will the Nato mission fail in Afghanistan?
The Nato mission in Afghanistan is flagging. US President Obama fired his hand-picked commander, General McChrystal, and replaced him with seasoned General Petraeus from the Iraqi campaign in June. The counterinsurgency expert has the task to fight for a ''decent interval'' until the US wraps up its fight together with its allies by 2014. Experts yawned at Washington's vapid policy review released earlier in December. After the 10th anniversary in 2011 of toppling the Taliban, the US is squarely focused on retreat. The Taliban-Al Qaeda classic guerrilla campaign complete with a sanctuary border like Vietnam finally tires the feeble US giant.

Q5.   Does Castro, Inc. survive?
A: Yes. Castro,Inc. limped across the finish line in 2010 just like 2009. At least Fidel's little brother, Raúl, recognizes the despotic regime's survival is on the line. Any easing in US economic sanctions is likely a nonstarter given the Republican opposition's control of the US House of Representatives. Expect more focus on Cuba as Ileana Ros-Lehtinen becomes chair of the powerful House Foreign Affairs Committee. Castroism, however, is the real culprit of the gutted economy and broken revolutionary dreams on the  paradisaical prison island.

Q6. What is next for the European Union?
A: The gathering storm clouds at the end of 2009 rained on the European Union in 2010. The financial crisis spurred by excessive sovereign indebtedness, sclerotic growth in the national economies, and the global economic slowdown  has already consumed Greece, Ireland, and Portugal. While the faux union avoided disintegration in 2010, economic gloom brought despair and riots across the Continent. Analysts see a tough go in 2011 as Spain struggles to stop the euro country dominoes from falling. However, at the end of the day, its socialist economic schemes doom any meaningful recovery in the Euroland house of cards.

Stay tuned for the Top 6 Strategic Questions for 2011. Do you have a strategic question?

Happy New Year! ¡Feliz Nuevo Año! Feliz Novo Ano!

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Bet on Sinking, Cuba

Lil Brother Raúl lashed out at the rubber-stamp Cuban National Assembly over the moribund state of Castro, Inc. yesterday (ABC.es - "O rectificamos o nos hundimos'' - Either we make corrections or sink).

In a bit of comic relief, he even suggested that committing the same errors of the past  pone en juego "la vida de la revolución" (endanger the life of the revolution). Good!

And just who committed those errors?

Economic Crisis Deepens
Dr. Pavel Vidal Alejandro of the Universidad de La Habana provides background to the current crisis in a short paper published by the Spain´s Real Instituto Elcano entitled, El rompecabezas monetario y financiero cubano (Headache of Cuban Money and Finance). 

Dr. Alejandro points to the trouble of the dual (dueling?) currencies - convertible and nonconvertible peso - and the financial disequilibriums in the banking sector.

However, one fundamental fact is inescapable - socialism does not work, especially the extreme state-centralized Castro style. No amount of cash infusions into the dying patient can revive it.

One of GSM's Top Six Strategic Questions of 2010 was - Does Castro, Inc. survive?

So now like in 2009, Cuba limps along.

Various media reports say a Wikileaks cable from the US Interest Section discussed a broke Cuba in two or three years.

Return to freedom
The entire Cuban experience under the jackboot of Castro,Inc. has been a nightmare in the cost of lives and treasure on the paradisaical prison island for those outside the communist elite.

Castro, Inc. cannot sink fast enough so freedom and prosperity can return to the once upon a time ''pearl of the Caribbean.''
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Invisible Hand Crushing €uro House of Cards

A specter is haunting the European Union.

Whether practiced in the former Soviet Union, Cuba, North Korea, or the European Union, statism does not work.

Failed EU Economic System

At the end of the day, the much-maligned ''invisible hand'' of the market exacts its toll and cannot be defied without excessive costs. Just look at the collapsing euro house of cards.

Spain is learning a difficult lesson by the ''invisible hand'' as the bond market moves mercilessly against the Iberian giant spurring a huge leap in its risk premium this week, the highest since the euro's debut. 

Effete socialist President Zapatero in Madrid, with declining popular support, still strenuously resists talk of a bailout, but so did Ireland at first. 

The European social welfare experiment is nearing its end - in disaster.

The iron hand of dirigisme marked by parsimonious economic growth, unfunded promises by elite politicians to provide cradle-to-grave livelihood, entrenched unions, and above all - the disincentive for entrepreneurship and economic freedom to excel beyond one's social station at birth - mires an ageing, energy-strapped, and  near defenseless (save Nato) EU adrift in a sea of pain. High tide is now upon the euro-zone.

The EU crisis is social, economic, and political. There is no president of the EU to bring discipline to decision making. Too much shared history, atavism, and a gulf between the ''rich core'' and ''poor periphery'' cannot be reconciled. Divisions are also geographic:  east-west and north-south. A divided house will not stand.

Finally, bureaucrats and politicians are not smarter than the business class in economic production, job creation, and bolstering economic freedom. The lack of economic freedom smothers the euro zone.

Wither the EU?

The European Union began without the consent of the people yet now the hoi polloi (taxpayers) are being asked to save the elite dream began with the Treaty of Rome in March 1957. 

Greece. Ireland. Probably Portugal. Maybe Spain. Then Italy. Like dominoes, the periphery EU countries are collapsing and pressuring the core (Germany and France)  to stop the economic hemorrhaging.

Ironically, Ireland reluctantly joined the EU scheme. The United Kingdom smartly kept the pound sterling. 

GSM looked into its crystal ball in December 2009 and asked in its Six Strategic Questions for 2010: What is next for the European Union?

As far back as May, the respected business journal Bloomberg raised the prospect of a disintegrating EU. 

Six months later, the EU is unraveling daily. Slovakia exempted itself from any aid in the Irish bailout. So much for the ''one for all and all for one'' happy EU.

Germany, the EU's ATM, now sees its own credit-worthiness stressed. 

Fundamental Failure

While the current crisis focuses on sovereign debt and bank lending, the fundamental failure is the attempt to fight market forces with excessive taxes, generous social welfare policies, and the ''omnipotent State'' growing into a Leviathan in every citizen's life. 

Frankly, the mature EU economies are not producing what the world wants to buy. Where is the EU's Apple or Toshiba?

Moreover, the economies cannot grow or compete in the global economy with the impediments of overregulation and nanny-state interference from the national capitals and the colder blanket from Brussels' bureaucrats.

While the EU continues to voluntarily kill its economies, its global competitors move forward. 

The market wins at the end of the day as demonstrated by world history, a lesson unfolding before the world today. 

The faux European Union is dissolving along with its faux currency. 

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The North Korean Menace - Time for the stick?

The deadly artillery bombardment of South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island is yet more evidence that the cartload of carrots thrown at the North Korea nuclear impasse over the years has only emboldened the dictatorship in Pyongyang.

Kim Jong-Un to rescue

Spoiled Child in Pyongyang
The North Korean case is a perfect example of sparing the rod, spoils the child.

The impish regime in Pyongyang like most autocracies consumed the inducements, used negotiations to advance its nuclear program to fruition, and correctly interpreted the constant request for negotiations as a sign of weakness.

Today, North Korea stands at the brink in the death throes of a desperate transition to the Kim Jong-Un, Kim Jong-Il's youngest son. He is yet another corpulent member of the ruling family in a country that has suffered repeated episodes of famine, but obviously the ruling class was not affected. The twenty-something neophyte is supposed to save the dying regime?

China, who is the mother to the childish regime, is the key to resolving the North Korean imbroglio. For fear of disrupting any access to the lucrative Chinese consumer market and offending its banker, the United States is loathe to bluntly tell Beijing to solve the problem or have it solved.

American impotence to defend an ally from a regional bully is noted not just by China but its enemies around the world.

The North Korean menace ranges beyond the spooky corner of Northeast Asia. Pyongyanh is also heavily involved with Iran and also ships arms to terrorist groups like Hizbullah.

Higher Cost to End the Crisis
Now a declining yet nuclear-tipped Pyongyang threatens war with South Korea as Seoul prepares for naval exercises with the US.

World history is replete with examples that those who live by force like the thugs in Pyongyang only respect force. Why this is such a hard concept for many to grasp in the world capitals of democracies is baffling. Regime behavior can only be moderated by the stick since carrots only fatten resolve.

The cost of solving the North Korea case is higher now because past opportunities were squandered at the negotiation table as if (same for Iran) a rogue regime has any interest in volunteering ceding its chip at the table of international diplomacy.

A unified Korea, yes bordering China, under democratic control from Seoul, should be the goal and the appropriate measures should be undertaken to achieve it.
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Nica-Tico Border Dispute Update -1

The Nicaragua-Costa Rica tiff over disputed territory along the San Juan River in northeastern Costa Rica is receiving scant attention in the English-language press.

GSM is following the developments closely. Here are the latest headlines translated from the Spanish-language press:

Rechaza México las aseveraciones del Presidente de Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega
Mexico categorically rejects the unfounded allegations made moments ago by the President of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, in his speech on the dispute with Costa Rica...

Costa Rica denuncia amenaza de Ortega sobre navegación en río Colorado

Costa Rica denounces Ortega's threat about navigation on Colorado River
... Announcing yesterday that it will ask the International Court of Justice in The Hague, Netherlands, free navigation on the Colorado River. (The Colorado River runs near the Calero Island, at the heart of the dispute).

Ortega irá a la CIJ y dice saldrá de la OEA

Ortega to go to International Court of Justice (ICJ), says leaving OAS
Nicaragua will go to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to ''denounce Costa Rica for occupying Nicaraguan territory," and reiterated it would not withdraw troops guarding the border.

Ortega arremete de nuevo contra Colombia en disputa con Costa Rica

Ortega lashes out against Colombia in dispute with Costa Rica
The Nicaraguan president accused the country of spearheading an international conspiracy against Managua ... "promoting an expansionist policy in the Caribbean Sea."
****
It is obvious Nicaragua is not going to back down anytime soon. The dispute between Managua and San José has nothing to do with an error on Google maps. Ortega relishes the bad boy role for ALBA (the Chavista gang in Latin America) in bullying the unarmed nation of Costa Rica. Now, he lashes out at Colombia and prattles about conspiracies.

It is time for the remaining democratic countries in the region to speak up and pressure Ortega to relent.

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Más alla Nica-Tico Tiff - A Nicaragua Canal?

 GSM figured correctly there was an ulterior motive for Nicaragua's sudden interest in the mouth of the San Juan River running into the Caribbean Sea in the extreme southeast border region with Costa Rica.

Never ever trust ALBA and its members. 

While Comadante Ortega no doubt wants to gin up nationalist sentiment ahead of his unconstitutional third bid in presidential elections next year, one cannot forget Nicaragua's dream of its own canal traversing the border with Costa Rica from the Caribbean to the Pacific Ocean (the so-called Canal Interoceánico de Nicaragua).

Recall the first plan for the later Panama Canal was to traverse Nicaragua.

Sinister Sandinista Scenario

A confluence of interests apparently converged in the rash Nicaraguan invasion of Costa Rica territory.

Haartez curiously reports today that Iran and Venezuela have designs for a Nicaragua Canal noting that dredging is already under way. Costa Rica frets the attendant environmental damage.

Río San Juan

Compañero Chavez desperately seeks to get his oil to energy-starved China and a pipeline through Colombia seems improbably given the rocky relations between the two brotherly neighbors.

China actively plots to limit Washington's influence in the region.

Russia and even the United Arab Emirates have expressed interest in a Nicaragua Canal.

While there is no denying economic benefits for Latin America's second poorest country (after Haiti), ALBA's interest come first: spreading its tyranny at the expense of freedom-lovers in the region.

Given Nicaragua is a noted transshipment point in the narcotics trade and Venezuela is a haven for both drugs and Hizbullah terrorists, it is not difficult to see a coming calamity of a Nicaragua Canal under Sandinista-ALBA direction.

Enough mischief is possible to warrant grave concern among freedom-lovers in the region. 

Will Nicaraguan Bullies Withdraw from Isla Calero?
Just look at the cast of international characters potentially involved in the canal project.

Managua flatly rejected the OAS' demand to withdraw its troops from Tico territory today.

ALBA bullying must not be allowed to prosper. 

This hardening resolve with unalloyed ALBA support and the cast of characters potentially involved in any canal deal require an immediate resolution to thwart the nefarious plans at the expense of peace-loving Costa Rica and freedom-lovers throughout the hemisphere.

Given Costa Rica only has a mere national police force in face of a trained Sandinista Army, San José needs diplomatic reinforcement to stare down Managua's strong arm tactics.

Is Washington watching? Is the Obama Administration able to decipher the freedom-lover and the tyrant in this spat?

It is high time the Castro-Chavez Axis in Latin America is confronted resolutely - the sooner the better.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Which Way Syria?

An old expression among Middle East hands goes - No war without Egypt; no peace without Syria.

The Westernized leader of Syria, President Bashar Assad, can play a positive role in the region.

An excellent analysis, Above the Fray: Syria’s dilemma, appeared in the Jerusalem Post this week.


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Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Google in Border Spat

Invasion
Four days ago Nicaragua invaded a remote mosquito-infested part of extreme northeastern Costa Rica in a power play before Commadante Daniel Ortega's unconstitutional bid to remain leader in Managua.

La Nacion in San José reports an increasing Nicaraguan presence in the border area.

The correct Nicaragua-Costa Rica border shown on Bing Maps and, inset, the incorrect version shown on Google Maps. Nicaragua cited the Google map as a basis for its operation prompting Google to admit its ''inaccuracy.''

credit: laprensa.ni

The murky San Juan River divides the two countries in the disputed area and Nicaraguan units are now dredging it supposedly to make room for cruise lines.

Or is there a military mission in mind?

Bullying ALBA Tyranny
While border disputes are a common flareup among neighbors in the international system, the bullying Nicaraguans have rushed army units into the area while Costa Rica can only muster a spartan police force to defend its sovereign territory (Costa Rica, a pleasant democracy does not have an army).

The spat is another muscular show of the ALBA, the leftist political front headed up by Venezuela to end democracy across the region.

While San José called out to the flaccid OAS for support, that could be more harmful as its record of standing against the march of tyranny in the region is poor.

Costa Rica is a bulwark of democracy living peacefully in its lush tropical paradise. Other democracies in the region need to speak up to pressure Managua to come to its senses, withdraw its forces, and stop the provocative show on its border.

The tyranny of ALBA must be thwarted again by freedom-loving countries like during the Honduran crisis last year.
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Bienvenue Hu Jintao, Au revoir des Manifs

Sarkozy, Hu Jintao à L'Élysée Palace

Welcome Hu Jintao, Good-bye Protests
Yesterday French Presidente Nicolas Sarkozy rolled out the red carpet for the state visit of the world's most powerful man according to Forbes magazine, Chinese President Hu Jintao.

When the world's banker comes calling to talk finance, it is a champagne and caviar occasion - protesters be damned.

Freedom Exchanged for Money
The cost of the Sino-Franco $16 billion for Airbus planes and reactors - sweeping away any hint of demonstrators for Liu Xiaobo's freeedom.

Recall the Chinese dissident was awarded the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize for his ''long and non-violent struggle for fundamental human rights in China." Will Beijing release him from imprisonment to accept his prize in person?

Monsieur Sarkozy had a perfect forum to press for his freedom.

Is the freedom to protest in France now interdit? Pas de liberté?

Notice in this video how the police cracked down on a group of peaceful protesters from Reporters Without Frontiers (RSF in French), resulting in six arrests and others enroute were detained in the subway. 

Is this how France treats protesters for human freedom? Were the latter RSF members under police surveillance to prevent a peaceful protest?

This aggressive action is reprehensible.

Observers note a softening in Sarkozy's tone toward China after a tiff over Tibet two years ago. The French president had threatened to boycott the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics over China's tough Tibet policy.

When France learned to ''behave,'' the Chinese president showed up for a state visit. 

Just like during the Cold War, such ''impoliteness'' toward communist dictatorships could scuttle lucrative business deals to sustain their grubby grip on power.

What about human rights, Monsieur Sarkozy?
Thus, even inside democratic countries like La France, communist norms - protests are broken up - are enforced to carefully manage the dictator's visit in hopes of exchanging curbs on freedom for a favorable outcome of trade negotiations.

Human dignity is not for sale, however.

China's growing strength in socio-eco-politico matters on the global stage demands a greater exercise of  responsibility on its part and accountability by freedom-loving states to engage Beijing without compromising but defending principles like les droits de l'homme, Monsieur Sarkozy.

Sino-Ruso Gangup on Japan?

In late September, China and Japan clashed over the Diaoyutai Islands (Senkaku in Japanese).

Russia's Move
Yesterday Russian President Dmitry Medvedev drew Tokyo's ire when he visited Kunashir isle, one of the four disputed with Japan since the end of World War II.

The provocative step is consistent with stoking Russian nationalism on full display in the Victory Day last May in Moscow and comes ahead of a regional summit between the two countries.

Mr. Medvedev's visit was a milestone since he is the first Russian leader to visit the island group.

Japanese Foreign Minister Naoto Kan reasserted Japan's claim to its ''northern islands'' and called the visit ''regrettable.''
 
Japan recalled its ambassador to Moscow in response to the latest territorial tiff. 

Russo-Sino policy in tandem
Is there another reason to up the pressure on Japan?

Some Japanese observers see a joint Russo-Sino gang up on territorial disputes with Japan.

Evidence grows of  a stronger ''strategic partnership'' between Beijing and Moscow especially in the Pacific region.

The fight over the four Kuril Islands stems from the vagaries of the post-World War II conferences in Postsdam and Yalta and the fact that the Soviet Union did not sign the Treaty of San Francisco.

The United States thus never supported the Soviet claim over the isles and still sides with Japan today.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Brazil's Rocky Road Ahead

 Sao Paulo, 31/10/2010, 11h54BST

Dilma Rousseff

Worldwide headlines in the papers today point to an expected win by Worker Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) Dilma Rousseff in the second round to succeed her mentor and current President Lula da Silva of Brazil.

Red flags abound surrounding the choice of Ms. Rousseff to lead Brazil.

A vote for Ms. Rousseff is blind. There is no evidence she is ready to lead Latin America's largest country and economy.

A rather empty and nasty campaign based on Lula's reputation and success propelled her bid. His accomplishments - not hers.

Ms. Rousseff is a ''true believer'' as a former leftist revolutionary during the military government. But, once a leftist revolutionary always a leftist revolutionary.

Press restrictions are on their way to Brazil as authoritarianism grows under PT one-party control.

Press censorship will undoubtedly redound to erosion of personal freedom.

The Brazilian experiment with democracy (just a short 25 years) will be challenged severely in the future with the continuance of statists in power. 

The projected victory of Ms. Rousseff today opens a new chapter in Brazil's history.

While ''continuity'' was sold to soothe the country's doubts about her since her radical past is well-known, it is a mirage.

Expect a sharp left turn ahead instead.

Brazil faces a rocky road ahead on many fronts.
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Brazil to Polls Next Sunday

Sao Paulo, Brazil - 21h50 - Sunday - 

It appears the leftist Workers Party candidate, Dilma Rousseff, is still the favorite to succeed the party's popular incumbent President Lula in Round Two of Brazil's presidential election.

However, more one-party rule intrigue and the gender gap have surfaced as the election nears.

Apparently, audio recordings attest to the fact that the Justice Ministry received requests by Ms. Rousseff and others to compile dossiers on her political adversaries, according to Veja magazine.

On Sunday, the daily  Folha in Sao Paulo revealed payments were made to workers in the ministry for the dossier.

In a separate report, Folha reported a gender gap as ''Dilma's Achilles heel.''

However, the gap is not what you may suspect. More men (51%) support Ms. Rousseff than women (43%)!

Is there sufficient doubt about the sanity of one-party rule given the reported abuses of power? Can she bridge the gender gap in time?

Veteran observers say ''yes,'' but what about the voters on Halloween Sunday?
***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Sarko falls below 30% support

The French Senate voted again for President Sarkozy's retirement reform last week despite mayhem in la rue (street).

Over the weekend, Le Figaro publsihed an Opinionway survey showing support for ending the strikes and for the unions to respect the vote.

On a more troubling note for the French president, an Ifop-JDD poll on Sunday showed his popularity slipping below 30% - Popularité: Sarkozy passe sous les 30%, the first time since May 2007.

The alphabet soup of unions and the militant youth show no signs of ceding as final passage of retirement reform is set for Wednesday.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

ZP's Spain in Tailspin

The ''accidental'' Socialist president of Spain, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, is in a tailspin and threatens to take his country down with him.

He only was elected in the confusion of the March 2004 Al Qaeda bombings at the end of the campaign against the incumbent more conservative Popular Party (PP). He never was qualified for the top leadership position and Spain's fortunes have only reversed under his unsteady governance.

Last week, he shuffled his government including summarily dumping his foreign minister, Miguel Angel Moratinos. He quipped - ''Am I the worst minister?''

After the general strike earlier in the month by his hard left union allies and the continuing degeneration of the country's economy, Zapatero had to do something to re-energize his listless government.

As the Madrid daily El Mundo reports, ZP (as he was once affectionately known) winked at the hard left  and his base to solidify his untenable position.

Mariano Rajoy, leader of the opposition PP, summed it up best - ''Yes, we need a new government, but one through the ballot box so that no only the music changes, but the director of the orchestra and the score.''

The country definitely deserves better.

Socialism is a remarkable failure around the world and ZP's Spain is no exception.
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Sarko Defies Leftist Opposition

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, to his credit,  is not flinching in his latest policy move to modernize France - modest retirement reform by boosting the minimum age by only two years, from 60 to 62. (LeFigaro: Sarkozy confiant malgré le durcissement du conflit - Sarkozy confident despite escalation of conflict).

Even this timid effort sent the usual crybaby suspects spilling into la rue (the street) from the alphabet soup of Hard Left les syndicats (trade unions) to the actual group that has most to lose if he fails - militant students - all in an attempt to defend the indefensible status quo.

The government claimed victory today in the numbers game (''la mobilisation a été la plus faible depuis le début du mois de septembre'' - Le Parisien - mobilization was the weakest since September) as les syndicats protested to the contrary. Le Figaro figures a 10% inflation in the numbers given by les syndicats.

Just when it seemed France was headed for a showdown on Monday since the refinery unions cut oil supply  to airports nationwide, including Charles de Gaulle, the most important, outside Paris, even that service has been restored ( L'oléoduc qui livre Roissy et Orly est à nouveau en service - Le Parisien - The pipeline that delivers Roissy and Orly is back in service).

While it is not perfectly clear Sarkozy has escaped an apparent cul-de-sac taking on the entrenched Hard Left labor and its allies yet again, he is to be saluted for his courage and vision to bring sanity to France's sclerotic economic growth and structural barriers holding back its progress.
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If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Sarko's Cul-de-sac?

À la grève!

October 12 - France is on strike and the reverberations are spreading across the Continent with cancelled flights and cuts to train service with Italy and Switzerland. (see Europa se paraliza)

Can French President Nicolas Sarkozy defy the street full of organized labor protesters to solidify the country's finances?

President Sarkozy wants to raise the national retirement age from 60 to 62 by 2018 and the French Senate approved the measure earlier this month.

Articles with ''...les syndicats se félicitent d'une mobilisation en hausse'' (unions welcome greater mobilization...) fill the French press.

A recent Ifop-Sud Ouest poll shows an overwhelming 71% of the public ''estiment que le mouvement social contre le projet gouvernemental est justifié'' (say the movement against the government project is justified).

Even this modest move of two more years before retirement puts France ahead of the United Kingdom at 65 and Germany at 67, two countries also facing fiscal crises.

While a general strike like in Spain last week has not hit France, wide swaths of the public sector have joined the movement to damage further an already weak economy barely growing at 1% and perhaps a revised downward of 2% in 2011.

Today, even the organized youth spilled into the street to increase the numbers in the leftist campaign to defeat Sarkozy and prepare for the Socialists return to power in the presidential elections in 2012.

The youth are actually ones who have the most at stake and face a grim future if the government cannot align revenue and expenditures today.

Unlike its EU neighbors, France's population continues to grow (by 9 million over the next four decades). This demographic fact is stressing its generous social system.

France's budget deficit is 7.5% of GDP, well exceeding the 3% target set by the European Union and is unsustainable, a reality many refuse to ponder.

Past administrations failed to enact meaningful labor reform when the heat from the street forced their hands.

While a cabinet shuffle is expected by the end of the month to re-energize his administration, so far there is no sign Sarkozy is going to fold in the test of wills.

His prime minister, M. François Fillon, today reiterated his intention "mener cette réforme [des retraites] à son terme (see this reform [retirement] to its end).

Bonne chance!
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The China Conundrum

Top Chinese activist Liu Xiaobo, 54, won the Nobel Peace Prize for 2010 in a clear rebuke to Beijing.

Will he be allowed to collect the award given he has been in a Chinese jail for over 10 years? The state has never defended his arrest.

Now his wife has been arrested as well after visiting him.

This recent news in the China-sphere comes amidst rumors of a currency war with the US, a recent heated territorial dispute with Japan, a military surge in Asia,  and becoming the world's second largest economy.

The China conundrum is: Can an authoritarian regime continue to prosper economically without political freedom?

So far, Beijing has managed to keep its bargain with its people after the Tiananmen Square disaster in 1989: you may get rich, but do not ask for political freedom.

Even the widely-respected scholar Robert Kagan believes economic freedom can be separated from political freedom.

Liu Xiaobo, however, rejects the false dichotomy by demanding political freedom to match the economic freedom at the price of his own.

Some observers believe the false dichotomy works as long as the Chinese economy continues to prosper.

China has made revolutionary economic progress since the 1960s and rightly seeks its place at the leadership table of the world community.

Rights and respect come with responsibility.

The absence of political freedom for its citizens will continue to undermine its claim to the mantle as a responsible global leader until Lui Xiobo and his countrymen can respectfully dissent without the fear of state repression.
***
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Venezuela - Narcotics/Terrorist Haven

Hugo Chavez's Venezuela is a paradise for the illicit drug trade and international terrorists.

Thirty members of Spain's murderous domestic terrorist band, ETA, continue to wage armed struggle from Venezuela (La treintena de etarras en Venezuela sigue defendiendo la «lucha armada»), the Madrid daily ABC reports today.

ETA trains in Venezuela openly and Spanish President Jose Luiz Zapatero ''mira por otro lado'' (turns a blind eye to) the blatant dirty business. Incredible.

In addition, democratic neighbor Colombia, engaged in a civil war for more than 40 years with the narco-terrorists, FARC, presented more evidence just in July to the OAS (Organization of American States) showing the narcoterror group's sophisticated weaponry.

ETA provided material support for a (disrupted) FARC attack on the new Colombian president, Juan Manuel Santos, at his inauguration in Bogotá last August.

Bogotá has well documented that the FARC is a guest of Chavez and has safe haven to launch its murderous campaigns at will from the Venezuelan side of the border.

The Venezuela-FARC narcoterrorist connection even leads to Al Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM).

Mix in news of elite Iranian Qod (Revolutionary Guards) officers (denied by Chavez) in Venezuela. It is not difficult to understand the scope and direction of Chavez's designs for his country and beyond.

Moreover, Chavez's Venezuela is a narco-paradise, a transshipment point for the very lucrative Latin American drug trade.

The car bombing in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, in July demonstrates how the long nefarious tentacles of narcoterrorism, state-supported by Venezuela, is a much wider and serious problem than any diplomatic row between Madrid and Caracas over ETA terras. 

The nexus of narcotics and terrorists, the presence of elite Iranian Revolutionary Guardsmen, and undermining Colombia and Spain, and perhaps even Mexico, as well as tentacles stretching into Africa's Sahel, shows Venezuela to be a rogue regime.

Drug money fuels narcoterrorism and propels Chavez's sinister regional ambitions to spread his noxious ''twenty-first socialism'' beyond Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Nicaragua. Honduras successfully resisted last year.

Chavez is a complete menace to his own people as well as democracy and peace in the region and beyond.

The sooner the peace-loving world admits that fact and takes a harder line against Caracas the better.

Perhaps an expected Republican-led US Congress can pressure the Obama White House to seriously review its policy toward Caracas in 2011.
***
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Ecuador - The Coup That Never Happened

Budgetary cuts and less promotions, as part of President Correa's austerity program, fueled a police protest in Ecuador on September 30.

In an act of machismo, Correa went to a police barracks in Quito, the capital, to confront the grumbling in the rank and file, tore open his shirt, and dared them to kill him.

The police responded by pelting him with rocks and tear gas was fired. The president fled across the street to a police hospital where supposedly he was ''kidnapped.''

Eyewitnesses in the hospital dispute Correa's claim of victimization of being kidnapped and that he could have left the hospital anytime he wanted. His grip on the country was never in jeopardy - a coup that never happened.

The military brass stood firm while reportedly the air force and navy ''reluctantly'' supported him.

The paroxysm of police protests around the country reflected Correa's increasingly unpopular ''populist'' moves after securing a new constitution in a referendum in 2008 giving the president broader powers.

The eco-socio-politico state of affairs in Ecuador is worsening. International investors increasingly are wary after defaulting on part of the national debt, increasing pressure on foreign oil firms, and a general direction of a statist economics under the umbrella of the so-called ''citizen's revolution.''

Correa has put Ecuador firmly in the Chavista orbit, apparently been implicated in dealings with the Colombian narcoterrorists the FARC,  kicked the US out of its Manta airbase, and maintained chumminess with Iran.

He is exploiting the latest crisis to concentrate more power in his hands, silence the opposition, and advance his vision of an Ecuador under the so-called ''twenty-first century socialism'' which is just as much a failure as the twentieth century.

This time he held fast with the aid of the military. What about the next?

***
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Brazil Election Update: On to Second Round

The final poll - the actual vote - painted a mixed picture on Sunday when Brazilians went to the polls to choose a new president, federal representatives and senators, governors, and state representatives.

The incumbent Partido Trabalhista (PT) made gains in the Senate, but President Lula's hand-picked favorite to succeed him, Dilma Rousseff, fell short of the 50%  needed to avoid a longer campaign and greater scrutiny. She scored only 46.9%, less than Lula's 48.9% in 2006.

Given a strong economy, an adored President Lula, and  party hacks engaged in chicanery to spy on her closest rival, the former Marxist guerrilla had the wind at her back. Yet she was thwarted from obtaining a clean sweep therefore forcing a second round on October 31.

Election polls before the election uniformly gave Ms. Rousseff a comfortable lead above the 50% mark ahead of her main rival bidding to replace Lula, Jose Serra of the Social Democrat Party, who scored 33% of the vote. His party racked up four governorships in the first round showing muscle at the state level.

The third candidate, soft-spoken Marina Silva of the Green Party, is now the king maker after grabbing nearly 20% of the vote. While her followers lean toward the Serra camp, four weeks is a long time in politics.

It is clear the unease reported in the pre-election post pervades the electorate. More than 50% voted against the incumbent PT party's candidate, Ms. Rousseff. She is not  Lula.

Her well-manicured campaign based almost solely on Lula's sky-high popularity backfired.

Now she will have to speak up and attempt to reassure the public her revolutionary past is really history and she is prepared to lead Brazil forward on its date with destiny as a powerhouse in the XXI century.

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Israel-PLO ''Peace" Talks Failing Yet Again

News reports already signal another doomed round of ''peace talks'' between Israel and the PLO: Citing Israeli settlement-building, Palestinians rule out talks.

''Cautiously hopeful'' US President Obama is as susceptible (maybe more) than his predecessors to the hubris in the failure to ink a successful agreement between Israel and the PLO since launching the face-to-face talks in early September.

President Bashar Assad of Syria makes a poignant point: US President Obama was only seeking to score domestic political points with the new round of discussions, a cynical, but perhaps accurate assessment.

Of course the building of Israeli settlements (on its own territory) was a ready-made excuse for the PLO to play to save face. Israel does not owe the PLO anything, especially after saving it when Hamas booted them from the Gaza Strip in 2007.

Frankly, there is no peace at all in  ''peace talks'' which are designed to get Israel to make concessions - to cut its throat in the name of countless diplomats and its enemies who have never made this one concession - stopping attempts to end the Jewish state by any means possible.

Israel is justified in its protecting its national interests like any other sovereign country.

Given the PLO is in no position to impose ''peace'' on Jerusalem, it is best to re-assess and face a reality without its own homeland given both must confront a common enemy - Hamas.

There are certainly more pressing issues than the so-called Israeli-Palestinian Question for diplomats to mull as the Middle East region continues to slide toward war.

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Unease on Brazil's Election Eve, Dispatch from São Paulo

Dilma Rousseff, presidenta in waiting 

Dateline: São Paulo, Brazil, 18h02 BST

All that is left is the voting.

Short of a stunning reversal, Dilma Rousseff of the incumbent Partido Trabalhista (Workers' Party) will become Brazil's first woman president with a knock-out in the first round on Sunday.


Unease
Widely-popular President Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva tapped her to succeed him and his adoration by the masses will probably translate into an overwhelming victory.

However, her own governing agenda is deliberately an enigma and her constant dodging of public debates with her lackluster opponents only can fuel unease about the prevailing thought that a vote for Dilma is a vote for continuity.

Sadly, it is not. There is no evidence Dilma will follow the same pragmatic policy prescriptions which conferred superstar status on President Lula.

As a former guerrilla fighter who was tortured upon capture in the 1970s during the country's right-wing military dictatorship, she is still a ''true believer'' cut from the Latin American Leftist revolutionary quilt.

The presidential contest has been marred by dirty tricks against Dilma's closet opponent, Jose Serra, at the hands of Partido Trabalhista apparatchiks in the bureaucracy, press censorship when the story leads too close to the ruling party, and sharp barbs by Lula aimed at the Fourth Estate for seeking the truth. All should be red flags for those voting for continuing one-party rule in Brazil.

However, Dilma's political career outside the ranks of revolutionary has been marked by controversies.

Socio-Economic-Political Success
Lula, to his credit, kept his predecessor’s liberal economic policy orientation and restored market confidence in Brazil by taming inflation and stepping up privatization.  A larger middle class has rapidly emerged since 2003. Over 30 Brazilian firms figure in Forbes 2000 list released in April this year. Petrobras, the state-shared mega-oil conglomerate, just garnered $70 billion in its first public stock offering.

Ironically Lula presided over an economic miracle which surely would not have occurred with his own party's command and control philosophy.

Brazil, the ''B'' in the so-called BRIC (Brazil Russian India China) club of developing states is thus prosperous and growing even with a perceived overvalued real currency.  High tax revenues from a churning economy allowed social experiments like the uneven Bolsa Familia program to fight the country's crippling poverty. Official government figures show a 81% drop in poverty between 1995 and 2008 with much more to be done.

Errant Foreign Forays
Strong economics at home has accrued a measure of diplomatic clout abroad though squandered some by President Lula.

He cozied up to Terror,Inc. in Tehran including brokering  a deal with Turkey that attempted to shield the Islamic Republic from ''tough'' UN sanctions over its nuclear armament gambit.

Lula's closeness with President Chavez in Venezuela and his remarks in March comparing Cuban political dissidents to ''criminals'' for only wanting freedom are disturbing.

Dilma's Dilemma
''The world's most powerful woman,'' as dubbed by the UK's Independent, should she indeed win to lead Brazil forward into the twenty-first century must prove she will really continue with Lula's sensible policies and not fall back to the Latin American Left's ruinous socio-economic-political policies.

The new president inherits a Brazil brimming with promise, reveling in oil wealth, and enjoying broad respect around the world.

As usual in transitions within the same ruling party, the trick is to sustain the past victories and build upon them for a more successful tomorrow. Can a President Rousseff deliver?
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More Pain in Spain...Credit Rating Cut by Moody's

Spain's woes continue and threaten the entire EU project...

Friday, 1st October 2010

EU ECONOMY

HARRY BANKS 

 

RATINGS agency Moody’s cut Spain’s credit to Aa1 from AAA yesterday, removing the last of its highly-valued triple-A ratings but saying it did not expect to cut again soon thanks to efforts at fiscal reform.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

EU death throes continue, strikes wrack Continent

Austerity measures drew union protests across the European Union in 10 ten cities resulting in the arrest of 218 in Brussels, its capital, alone. Strikes by out of touch syndicalists is the lest of the EU's worries.


Spain experienced its seventh general  national strike with calls of '¡'Zapatero dimisión!'' (Zapatero resign!)

Zapatero is the president of Spain and as a socialist, a reliable friend of the unions. 


The European Union's fiscal crisis is not over. Moderate moves to reign in its spending is rejected by the unions at a time when the markets are calling for fiscal sanity. 


Labor reform including a higher retirement age is a nonstarter for entrenched interests across the Continent. 


Change is never easy but reality is closing in on the doddering socialist welfare states in Europe suffering from massive public deficit spending  and an ageing population which together threaten the viability of the EU. 


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Chavez Stumped

El presidente Hugo Chavez of Venezuela was stumped by a piercing question from a Radio France International (RFI) correspondent in a press conference on Monday after parliamentary elections last Sunday.

Journalist Adreina Flores confused el presidente with embarrassing facts by asking:

 ¿Por qué si la oposición ha obtenido más votos a nivel nacional, tienen menos diputados en el Gobierno?

If the opposition received more votes nationally, why does it have less seats than the government (in the National Assembly)?


This is why el presidente has nearly squashed press freedom in Venezuela. Tyrants do not have time for such silly questions.

Now let us see how long RFI remains reporting on the Caracas regime.

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Frightened France Folds for AQIM

French headlines today tell it all:

La gare Saint-Lazare évacuée après une fausse alerte
(St. Lazare Station Evacuated after False Alarm)

Otages du Sahel: Paris attend les exigences d'Aqmi
(Sahel Hostages: Paris Awaits AQIM's Demands)

L’Élysée prêt à negocier
(French Government Ready to Negotiate)

rfi.fr

France rightly fears an AQIM (Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb) attack after a French hostage was murdered in the Sahel last July following a daring yet unsuccessful French raid, the Eiffel Tower was closed after a (false) bomb threat two weeks ago, and another group of French workers was kidnapped just last week in Niger. 

AQIM is an expansion of the Al Qaeda franchise which developed out of an Algerian terrorist group. It has found a fertile recruiting ground in the lawless and economically-depressed Sahel (meaning ''edge'' or ''shore'' of desert).

AQIM is also involved in transnational narcotics trade to fund its operations.

Official denials to the contrary, if France again pays tribute to terrorists for seizing its nationals, expect more of the same. 

Unfortunately, the Sarkozy Administration is in the political doldrums and certainly does not need a hostage drama to remind les français of its perceived ineffectiveness.

A constant terror threat only complicates his portfolio of foreign policy challenges. 

Defeating terrorism is a test of wills. A rogue group in the African desert cannot be allowed to force France to fold before Islamic fascism. 

Conquering fear calls for facing it. 

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Not the Last China-Japan Clash

wikipedia.com

So, Japan made the correct move and finally released the Chinese captain who piloted a fishing trawler which allegedly rammed two Japanese patrol boats off the disputed Diaoyutai Islands (Senkaku in Japanese) earlier this month in the East China Sea.

The latest in a series of Sino-Japanese territorial disputes involves the island group claimed by both China and Taiwan, but is under Japanese control now.

Why is there the fuss over seemingly insignificant isles?

OIL!

Asia's two largest economies are dueling over the natural resources needed to keep their economies humming.

In August, China passed Japan to become the world's second largest economy.

Not only China, but South Korea and Russia as well, have ongoing maritime spats with Japan.

Clashes over islands, or sometimes more accurately, rock piles, in Asian seas is not a new phenomenon.

Expect China to continue its global push for the energy supplies needed to sustain its meteoric climb to surpass the United States and become the world's number one economy.

Also expect more clashes as Beijing fills the strategic vacuum in Asia in light of waning US power and flexes its national power to achieve its rightful ranking in the international system.

***
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Colombia Scores Major Victory over FARC

Newly-elected President Santos of Colombia begins his term with another dead commander in the inner circle of the FARC, the oldest rebel army group in Latin America fighting Bogotá for more than 40 years.

The number two commander and reputed sadistic narcoterrorist,Victor Suárez, nicknamed "Mono Jojoy,'' died in a heavy bombardment and military raid, according to military sources last Thursday.

President Santos stated: "Once again I notify the leaders of the FARC and the guerrillas: We're going after you. We will not hold back any effort."

Plus, another treasure trove of laptops, pen drives, and files was captured, an invaluable bonus to learn more about the group's workings.

Madrid's ABC daily newspaper reports that an infiltrator in the FARC command structure, not a GPS device in his boots as some media outlets reported, led the military to the rebel hideout.

If true, perhaps the latest daring maneuver marks the beginning of the end of the narcoterror war against the innocent of Colombia.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.