Global Security Headlines

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

#Peru's Peril after #Humala's Victory

Evo Morales, Hugo Chavez, and Ollanta Humala
There are three consequences in and outside of Peru after the arrival of the  pernicious Chavista brand when Ollanta Humala (51%) beat Keiko Fujimori (48%) for president in a nasty electoral battle last Sunday.

Peru's Peril
It is highly unfortunate Peru had to choose from two very checkered candidates for the highest office in the land.

Humala's victory is a radical departure from the centrist presidents of the recent past.

The losing candidate, Keiko Fujimori, paid the sins of her father, former president Alberto Fujimori who led Peru successfully against the terrorist group Sendero Luminoso, but at a catastrophic cost to human rights and the democracy.

He is now serving a 25-year prison sentence for corruption and crimes against humanity. Humala was given a boost from the start, but his narrow victory shows lingering sentiment for the Fujimoris and ambivalence about Humala's campaign promises.

Former lieutenant colonel Ollanta Humala's campaign saved the forced sterilization of the indigenous under Alberto Fujimori as an effective weapon in the closing days of the campaign. Just as Chavez has been able to arouse support among the indigenous in Venezuela, so Humala will in the days ahead in Peru.

In his nighttime address to his supporters at a rally in Lima (where Keiko Fujimori did her best showing), he again promised to ''transform'' the country. The Left is very serious about projects to reshape society into their own image.

Humala will probably follow Evo Morales, not Lula's path as most analysts seem to believe. He is not a moderate in any sense!

Expect moves to lift the five-year restriction for presidents in Peru, among other troubling constitutional moves. Like Chavez, Morales, and Correa of Ecuador, changing the constitution once in power is a high priority.

Once the fig leaf of legitimacy is secure at the ballot box, the destruction of the democracy can begin apace. Peru may have had its last free election.

Press freedoms will necessarily be curbed, too. When you are transforming the country, you cannot take chances.

Humala's "social inclusion" language is about wealth redistribution. Now, leftists are schooled in doing this in a number of ways. Subtly new taxes on "the rich" and corporations may be implemented.

Capital flight like in Argentina and Venezuela is of course an unavoidable consequence, but the purity to leftist ideology matters most.

The shock of direct nationalization of industry is too drastic when you are just beginning. The frog in the pot tactic works best by slowly turning up the heat until the frog is cooked.

The Peru stock index plummeted on Monday to welcome the Humala victory.

As Chavez learned, it is best to purge the military ranks as well early on. When the planned social, economic, and political chaos strikes the country, the only lever available to stop the madness is usually the generals.

Peru will rue the day, and maybe even Nobel laureate Mario Vargas Llosa as well, when Humala became president of Peru.

Democracy was not saved. On the contrary, Humala's victory imperils Peru.

The Chavista tyranny march in Latin America notches another step.

Colombia Encircled
A stubborn holdout from the Chavista Club in Latin America is Colombia, the region's oldest democracy.

Now, Colombia is fully encircled by the Chavista camp. Bogotá stands alone against Chavezism.

The longest-running civil war perpetrated by the narcoterrorist FARC rebels continues to plague Bogotá. Despite a successful concentrated campaign against the rebel inner command circle, there is no evidence of any victory in sight.

While the Colombian Supreme Court dismissed the trove of evidence found on FARC laptops, it is plainly evident Correa's Ecuador and Chavez's Venezuela provide material support to the rebels. Now Humala's Peru can help out as well.

Despite the economic disparities and poverty, Colombians fundamentally reject tyranny and for now that keeps Colombia free from the Chavistas.

US Loses Ally
Peru was one of the two or three loyal allies in a region increasingly hostile to Washington.

The Humala victory is a significant defeat for the US.

President Obama like his predecessor Bush barely recognizes how the region is almost entirely anti-American.

Washington has neither the will nor the energy to resist the Chavista Left south of its border.

The direct threat to US national security cannot be understated with plans for Iranian missiles in Venezuela.

Democracy is in retreat. Press freedoms are scant. The deliberate destruction of wealth and lives is a daily matter in Latin America.

The light of freedom is darkening across Latin America. Expansionist tyrants who win at the ballot box and then cannabilize their democracies are on the move.

Given the competition from the Middle East and the global economic crisis, news from Latin America is somehow deemed less important perhaps.

Tyranny is a universal problem and all should be concerned wherever it is and wherever it grows.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

EU Center Collapasing

News about the EU periphery is horrible. Now its core is in trouble.

Greece may yet leave the faux European Union (EU) by the end of this year after its economy remains in dire straits. It was never a qualifying state, but at least it kept its nemesis Turkey out.

Ireland and Portugal got their multi-billion euro bailouts to keep their economies afloat by passing the bill to fellow EU partners.

Spain is wobbling, but resists any talk of a bailout.

EU Center Collapsing

Germany and France have been the two principal authors of the EU experiment since its founding with the Treaty of Rome in 1957.

The Germany-France nucleus is now unraveling.

While Sarkozy's France seems to be stable, it is Germany, the EU's largest economy (nearly $3 trillion GDP),  where attention now turns in light of two recent bits of news: another devastating electoral loss by Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Party and the Cucumber Crisis.

Lights out for Germany?

In another stinging electoral defeat this year, Chancellor Merkel's party lost an election in Germany's most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia last Sunday. The CDU also lost control of its upper house of the German Parliament as a result, the Bundesrat.

Germany's bailout of Greece continues to exact a toll on Merkel's governance.

The political shift in Germany unmistakably away from the sane CDU could have a deleterious effect on an already hobbled EU going forward.

As an immediate reaction to election defeat, Merkel decided to essentially turn out the lights in Germany by ordering all nuclear plants extinguished by 2022, a concession to the wild-eyed Green Party. More energy will have to be pumped in from France and Poland at an added cost to German consumers.

Despite evidence abound, Germany will rely more upon a demonstrably failed wind power scheme to fuel the EU's largest economy. It is a very risky move for the country and the ailing EU around it.

Cucumber Crisis Crisscross

The Spanish cucumber crisis is more evidence of a Germany adrift.

An e.coli bacteria breakout in Hamburg last week has now claimed 14 lives across the country.

Fingers quickly pointed at Spain in more bad news for Madrid at a time of economic malaise.

However, now, German health authorities have backtracked leaving Spain the option to seek legal relief from the cucumber crisscross.

Spain faces a €43 million loss in wake of the false claims.

EU Death Throng

The EU continues to wither away. Now, even its core is crumbling.

While German Chancellor Merkel is expected to run for a third term in 2013, that looks less certain in the wake of the electoral defeats for her party and her unsteady leadership in face of truly difficult issues.

Berlin will regret the wind energy folly over the safety and certainty of nuclear energy.

The unwarranted highly-publicized panic to pin the cucumber crisis on Spain shows more than poor judgement. In the larger scheme, it is yet another sign of the faux EU.

A high level of mistrust runs deep between the member state capitals. The ghosts of history stalk the EU.

To undermine another national economy so recklessly is beyond excusable.

No, the EU is in its death throng. The collapse of steady and sane governance at the EU's core, Germany, marks another milestone in the organization's checkered history.

The silly Euro elitist experiment is coming to an end and not all of the overpaid and underworked bureaucrats in Brussels can put it back together again.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.