Global Security Headlines

Friday, February 25, 2011

Sanction Khadafy's Libya? Get Real!

Headlines today point to sanctions as the Western response to the quickly unfolding events in Libya:

Libye: Berlin pour des sanctions (Libya: Berlin for sanctions,

Francia y Reino Unido reclaman a la ONU la imposición de sanciones a Libia
(France and United Kingdom ask UN for imposition of sanctions for Libya,

Get real!
As the French press reports today, the third most important city in Libya, Misrata, has fallen to the rebels.

The circle is tightening around the cruel and crazy Khadafy. The battle for Tripoli is coming.

Not Sanctions, Troops
International powers may consider a peacekeeping force instead as the mercs fill the pro-Khadafy ranks.

Images of the macabre scenes in the streets, the spread of malnutrition, and general breakdown of society suggest a humanitarian disaster at the hands of a desperate despot.

Sanctions are often an excuse for doing nothing. The current country of Libya is ceasing to exist as rebel control expands.

More creative and bold ideas are needed to deal constructively with the post-Khadafy period. It is time to face that reality.

The European Union has the most the lose from the falling dominoes in North Africa from a refugee crisis.

If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

#Iran's Med Cruise through #Suez

The on-again off-again news reports about two Iranian warships set to pass through the Suez Canal for the first time since the Revolution is a curious item.

Press accounts have been both frenetic and erroneous. Why?

Chilling Egypt-Israel Relations
Terror, Inc. decided to run the gauntlet now to exploit the chaos in the wake of Mubarak's fall from power.

The Egyptian military junta has apparently decided to allow passage of the British-built Alvand frigate and a supply ship in a purported ''training mission'' in Syria. Sure.

One can speculate about the ''supplies'' Iran brings to Syria and its puppets Lebanon, Hizbullah and Hamas.

It will mark the first time an Iranian warship ever docked at a Syrian port.

The indecisiveness of Cairo to allow the passage shows the chaos in the decision-making process in the power vacuum following the exit of Hosni Mubarak.

It would be nice to know also to what degree the junta's relationship with Israel factored into the agreement. That the ships were granted passage could show a definite chill in Egyptian-Israeli relations.

Flexing naval power is an age-old tactic by states to prove their bona fides as a power player.

None of Iran's moves is calming or for fostering stability.

Terror,Inc's designs to become a regional hegemon are explicit. The quest for nuclear primacy already is an unsettling issue rattling an already shaky region.

Moreover, widening Iranian and Syrian cooperation is another facet of the Iranian cruise into the Med via the Suez. Both terrorist states are aligned for the destruction of Israel.

No doubt Damascus is still fuming about the preventative strike by Israel which destroyed its budding nuclear plant in 2007.

Events in the Middle East are shifting daily, but one observation stands pat - a regional showdown is brewing among the states aimed at the Jewish state.

Whether Sunni or Shia, the Islamist fascist factions agree Israel must be vanquished and plot to realize this perverse dream.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

The #MidEast Ablaze

While Global Security Monitor prepares a more thorough review of the Middle East in Mubarak's wake, we offer an interim note.

From Morocco to Af-Pak, an arc of fire consumes the old order of the Middle East.

The diverse region of Arab monarchs and despots will forever be changed by the so-called Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia. Its ramifications rattle the brittle regimes with scant legitimacy to govern.

A new Middle East is emerging with each shift in the political sands of a storied region wracked by religious warfare, economic despair, and shattered dreams of the angry youth raging in the Arab Street.

Brittle Regimes
Despite their vaunted security apparatus, secret police, and strong-arm rule, in the end, the fall of former  ''President'' Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia and ''President'' Hosni Mubarak of Egypt seemed anti-climatic.

Ali, 71, and Mubarak, 82, held in check more radical elements in their respective countries as long as possible. The brittle rule of the old men was clearly out of step of the needs and desires of the Arab Street and they paid the ultimate price by those who rule by force.

The shock waves of their collapse continue to undermine regional autocrats.

Falling Dominoes
When will the last domino fall?

Morocco. Algeria. Libya. Yemen. Jordan. Bahrain. Monarchs and dictators face the ire of their people. The thirst for freedom is innate in the human soul amid a world where slavery is the norm.

Zany Colonel Khadafy of Libya appears ready to fight to the bitter end. Unlike Tunisia and Egypt, the Libyan strongman has no compunction for using the full weight of the military against the people.

The defection to Malta of the two air force colonels who refused to do so gives little relief. Reports of other planes bombing the people demonstrated yet some loyalty to the regime.

The expected return of a key opposition leader to Bahrain cannot redound positively for the rulers on the tiny oil kingdom in the Persian Gulf as a tug-of-war between Saudi Arabia and Iran plays out.

Algerian strongman Abdelaziz Bouteflika has thus far staved off the ''Egyptian effect,'' but it is  yet not clear he can resist the demands from the Street for an end to his authoritarian rule and miserable living conditions.

It is difficult to determine just when the dominoes will stop falling.

Economic Consequences
MENA (Middle East and North Africa) is home to the world's largest proven oil reserves.

Like a full goblet of wine, the slightest jolt in political, economic, and social events in the region and it spills out and prices soar.

The world economic recovery is fragile pressured by the spike in commodity prices and now the surge in oil threatening to undercut any gains made.

Who fills the vacuum?
When dictators fall, the strongest and most organized opposition group has the best shot of claiming the mantle to lead.

In many cases in the regimes that are on the brink in the MENA, Islamist fascists are poised to bring order to the resulting chaos.

Speculation about ''democracy'' in countries who have only known repression and misrule is only happy talk. Only Israel has managed a Western-style pluralist government with legitimate consent of the governed.

The potential for mal-actors to exploit the power vacuums emerging in the breakdown of the previous dictatorial orders is great. GSM explores the winners and losers in its coming examination of the phenomenon occurring the region today.

Final Words
The fear of the strongman dictating the course of affairs in individual Arab countries is over. Those lucky to survive the current wave of opposition must reform or flee.

The rage in the Arab Street has steadily built among the delusions of the dysfunctional society in each of the afflicted countries.

High unemployment, squalid living conditions, and broken dreams despite the wealth of the country and/or its despotic leader fueled the wave of opposition to the older Middle East order.

Stir in a liberal dose of Islamist fascism, nuclear ambitions of Iran and Syria, a Pakistan moving closer to implosion, and a notable decline in US influence, it is not difficult for a dispassionate observer to see more upheaval in a  region that plays a significant role in the world economy as long as oil is its lifeblood.

If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.