Global Security Headlines

Monday, July 11, 2011

The #EU Down for the Count

GSM has assiduously followed the dizzying downward spiral of the European Union.

The fundamental weakness, above them all, is the inescapable truism that socialism is a failed economic theory.

The faux union of Western and Central European states is now naked for all to see.

The second Greek bailout has spurred the contagion across the Old Continent as Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and now Italy (the second most indebted economy in the EU) weigh on investors.

The invisible hand may be constrained, but in the end, the laws of economics cannot be denied.  The market will out.

The evaporating EU cannot be saved if Spain or Italy cede to international investors and German and French taxpayers cannot cough up the euros for the collapsing EU dream.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

#Peru's Peril after #Humala's Victory

Evo Morales, Hugo Chavez, and Ollanta Humala
There are three consequences in and outside of Peru after the arrival of the  pernicious Chavista brand when Ollanta Humala (51%) beat Keiko Fujimori (48%) for president in a nasty electoral battle last Sunday.

Peru's Peril
It is highly unfortunate Peru had to choose from two very checkered candidates for the highest office in the land.

Humala's victory is a radical departure from the centrist presidents of the recent past.

The losing candidate, Keiko Fujimori, paid the sins of her father, former president Alberto Fujimori who led Peru successfully against the terrorist group Sendero Luminoso, but at a catastrophic cost to human rights and the democracy.

He is now serving a 25-year prison sentence for corruption and crimes against humanity. Humala was given a boost from the start, but his narrow victory shows lingering sentiment for the Fujimoris and ambivalence about Humala's campaign promises.

Former lieutenant colonel Ollanta Humala's campaign saved the forced sterilization of the indigenous under Alberto Fujimori as an effective weapon in the closing days of the campaign. Just as Chavez has been able to arouse support among the indigenous in Venezuela, so Humala will in the days ahead in Peru.

In his nighttime address to his supporters at a rally in Lima (where Keiko Fujimori did her best showing), he again promised to ''transform'' the country. The Left is very serious about projects to reshape society into their own image.

Humala will probably follow Evo Morales, not Lula's path as most analysts seem to believe. He is not a moderate in any sense!

Expect moves to lift the five-year restriction for presidents in Peru, among other troubling constitutional moves. Like Chavez, Morales, and Correa of Ecuador, changing the constitution once in power is a high priority.

Once the fig leaf of legitimacy is secure at the ballot box, the destruction of the democracy can begin apace. Peru may have had its last free election.

Press freedoms will necessarily be curbed, too. When you are transforming the country, you cannot take chances.

Humala's "social inclusion" language is about wealth redistribution. Now, leftists are schooled in doing this in a number of ways. Subtly new taxes on "the rich" and corporations may be implemented.

Capital flight like in Argentina and Venezuela is of course an unavoidable consequence, but the purity to leftist ideology matters most.

The shock of direct nationalization of industry is too drastic when you are just beginning. The frog in the pot tactic works best by slowly turning up the heat until the frog is cooked.

The Peru stock index plummeted on Monday to welcome the Humala victory.

As Chavez learned, it is best to purge the military ranks as well early on. When the planned social, economic, and political chaos strikes the country, the only lever available to stop the madness is usually the generals.

Peru will rue the day, and maybe even Nobel laureate Mario Vargas Llosa as well, when Humala became president of Peru.

Democracy was not saved. On the contrary, Humala's victory imperils Peru.

The Chavista tyranny march in Latin America notches another step.

Colombia Encircled
A stubborn holdout from the Chavista Club in Latin America is Colombia, the region's oldest democracy.

Now, Colombia is fully encircled by the Chavista camp. Bogotá stands alone against Chavezism.

The longest-running civil war perpetrated by the narcoterrorist FARC rebels continues to plague Bogotá. Despite a successful concentrated campaign against the rebel inner command circle, there is no evidence of any victory in sight.

While the Colombian Supreme Court dismissed the trove of evidence found on FARC laptops, it is plainly evident Correa's Ecuador and Chavez's Venezuela provide material support to the rebels. Now Humala's Peru can help out as well.

Despite the economic disparities and poverty, Colombians fundamentally reject tyranny and for now that keeps Colombia free from the Chavistas.

US Loses Ally
Peru was one of the two or three loyal allies in a region increasingly hostile to Washington.

The Humala victory is a significant defeat for the US.

President Obama like his predecessor Bush barely recognizes how the region is almost entirely anti-American.

Washington has neither the will nor the energy to resist the Chavista Left south of its border.

The direct threat to US national security cannot be understated with plans for Iranian missiles in Venezuela.

Democracy is in retreat. Press freedoms are scant. The deliberate destruction of wealth and lives is a daily matter in Latin America.

The light of freedom is darkening across Latin America. Expansionist tyrants who win at the ballot box and then cannabilize their democracies are on the move.

Given the competition from the Middle East and the global economic crisis, news from Latin America is somehow deemed less important perhaps.

Tyranny is a universal problem and all should be concerned wherever it is and wherever it grows.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

EU Center Collapasing

News about the EU periphery is horrible. Now its core is in trouble.

Greece may yet leave the faux European Union (EU) by the end of this year after its economy remains in dire straits. It was never a qualifying state, but at least it kept its nemesis Turkey out.

Ireland and Portugal got their multi-billion euro bailouts to keep their economies afloat by passing the bill to fellow EU partners.

Spain is wobbling, but resists any talk of a bailout.

EU Center Collapsing

Germany and France have been the two principal authors of the EU experiment since its founding with the Treaty of Rome in 1957.

The Germany-France nucleus is now unraveling.

While Sarkozy's France seems to be stable, it is Germany, the EU's largest economy (nearly $3 trillion GDP),  where attention now turns in light of two recent bits of news: another devastating electoral loss by Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Party and the Cucumber Crisis.

Lights out for Germany?

In another stinging electoral defeat this year, Chancellor Merkel's party lost an election in Germany's most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia last Sunday. The CDU also lost control of its upper house of the German Parliament as a result, the Bundesrat.

Germany's bailout of Greece continues to exact a toll on Merkel's governance.

The political shift in Germany unmistakably away from the sane CDU could have a deleterious effect on an already hobbled EU going forward.

As an immediate reaction to election defeat, Merkel decided to essentially turn out the lights in Germany by ordering all nuclear plants extinguished by 2022, a concession to the wild-eyed Green Party. More energy will have to be pumped in from France and Poland at an added cost to German consumers.

Despite evidence abound, Germany will rely more upon a demonstrably failed wind power scheme to fuel the EU's largest economy. It is a very risky move for the country and the ailing EU around it.

Cucumber Crisis Crisscross

The Spanish cucumber crisis is more evidence of a Germany adrift.

An e.coli bacteria breakout in Hamburg last week has now claimed 14 lives across the country.

Fingers quickly pointed at Spain in more bad news for Madrid at a time of economic malaise.

However, now, German health authorities have backtracked leaving Spain the option to seek legal relief from the cucumber crisscross.

Spain faces a €43 million loss in wake of the false claims.

EU Death Throng

The EU continues to wither away. Now, even its core is crumbling.

While German Chancellor Merkel is expected to run for a third term in 2013, that looks less certain in the wake of the electoral defeats for her party and her unsteady leadership in face of truly difficult issues.

Berlin will regret the wind energy folly over the safety and certainty of nuclear energy.

The unwarranted highly-publicized panic to pin the cucumber crisis on Spain shows more than poor judgement. In the larger scheme, it is yet another sign of the faux EU.

A high level of mistrust runs deep between the member state capitals. The ghosts of history stalk the EU.

To undermine another national economy so recklessly is beyond excusable.

No, the EU is in its death throng. The collapse of steady and sane governance at the EU's core, Germany, marks another milestone in the organization's checkered history.

The silly Euro elitist experiment is coming to an end and not all of the overpaid and underworked bureaucrats in Brussels can put it back together again.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

Sunday, May 22, 2011

#Middle East and #Latin America Heat Up, #Spain Turns Right

Tyranny grows at freedom's expense in the Middle East and Latin America. Spain, suffering the ills of statism, turns to rightist Popular Party (PP) in local elections for a way out of its economic, social, and political malaise.

US Power Again Undermined by Obama Speech on Israel-Palestinian "Issue"

US President Obama, feeling his oats after killing Osama bin Laden on May 1, turned to one of the perennial chestnuts of global security - the so-called Israel-Palestinian issue.

In a speech on Thursday, while Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu was in the air on his way to Washington for talks, Mr. Obama hoped to trap his supposed ally in a public relations vise grip.

The gambit backfired spectacularly. Mr. Obama's call for a forced return of Israel to its pre-1967 borders was soundly rejected by Mr. Netanyahu and supporters of Israel.

The Jewish state's current borders were forged when its Arab neighbors ganged up for invasion and were soundly thrashed in combat, a historical fact seemingly ignored or not understood by the US president. History ignored usually is history repeated.

The public degrading of a US ally, nothing new from the current US administration, is yet another wakeup call for both friend (those remaining) and foe. Washington leans harder on its allies while refusing to confront common enemies, an amazing shift from previous administrations that understood realpolitik.

The naive leftist US president was rebuked publicly in the Oval Office on Friday by Mr. Netanyahu for all of the world's cameras to record the open dispute between supposed allies.

Mr. Obama endangered Israel's existence with his reckless and radical US policy shift despite claims to the contrary now that harsh criticism has descended upon him.

That a US president would apparently endorse the Muqawama Doctrine used by Israel's terrorist enemies is despicable.

The current US administration's anti-Israel bias is highly disturbing and provides too much comfort to the radical elements that work diligently to dissolve US power already on the wane in the Middle East and the state of Israel.

Missile Silos, ALBA Intrigue, FARC Laptop Fallout, Mel back to Honduras

Hugo Chavez's ALBA (Alternativa Bolivariana para Los Pubelos de Nuestra América) tyranny project continues unopposed across Latin America.

After reports at the end of 2010 about plans for Iran to install medium-range missiles in Venezuela, again German sources indicated this week an initiative to build missile bases on the Paraguaná Peninsula jutting out into the balmy Caribbean Sea just miles from Colombia.

Terror,Inc, racing to master the nuclear genie and build the missiles to deliver payloads of mass destruction, is not content to meddle in the Middle East region. That is why rogue regimes must be confronted and defeated. Their tentacles, once firmly rooted, continue to spread around the world.

All of this news comes on the heels of reporting about Iran's new Quiyam missile test fired by the Revolutionary Guard this week.

Iran is not the only interloper in the region (See Russian bombers post).

Now Washington, should it have the will, must confront growing Iranian influence in Latin America in alliance with Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez. The encirclement of the US and its dwindling friends in the region meshes nicely with the diabolic plans of both Tehran and Caracas to spread tyranny wherever possible.

Two other Chavez-related news bits from the region were reported this week. First, Colombia's Supreme Court ruled any evidence from the FARC laptops seized in a daring raid into Ecuador in March 2008 was inadmissible in legal proceedings.

Reyes, the number two guerrilla commander, was killed and a treasure trove of laptops and thumb drives were confiscated by the military. However, the Court cited military, not police, handling of the evidence in its harmful decision for the side of freedom in a region with less every day.

As Bogotá's El Tiempo reports today, the decision continues to cause shockwaves in and outside of Colombia. Colombian congressional representatives under investigation for collaboration with the narcoterrorist FARC and related international cases could be scuttled now. Chavez figures prominently in the FARC laptops which is not surprising given his belligerency toward democratic states.

In Cartagena, Colombia, today, Presidente Santos and the Venezuelan foreign minister welcomed the current presidente of Honduras, Porfirio Lobo, and the legally-ousted Chavista Mel Zelaya.

In a plan cobbled together over four days, Zelaya is allowed to return to Honduras to continue his tyrannical campaign and Honduras is eligible to re-enter among the flaccid Chavista-dominated Organization of American States (OAS).

The Chavistas have not given up on adding Honduras to their notch in the belt of Latin American countries heading toward the totalitarianism of Fidel's Cuba and Chavez's Venezuela: Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and soon-to-be Peru.

The return of Zelaya supposedly heals the wounds he opened with his failed gambit to force Honduras into the ALBA orbit. It is quite the opposite and the consequences for freedom-loving Honduras will become quickly apparent.

Spain's Socialists Smashed in Local Elections - "una histórica victoria" (historic victory)

Spaniards went to the polls in droves seeking relief from the pain of the incumbent Socialist Party's disastrous misrule and the country's tattered economy which threatens to deepen the eurocrisis gripping the Continent.

According to the Socialist fave, El País, the rightist opposition PP (Partido Popular) swept 10 of 13 regions and gained 10 points on the incumbent Socialists in local elections.

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero was always the accidental president of Spain elected as a chaotic reaction to the PP's mishandling of the macabre 11-M Islamic terror attacks at the Atocha train station in 2004 on the eve of the presidential election.

The witless political apparatchik, Zapatero, was never qualified to lead the country and adding the failed policies of the Euro-Socialists, the electoral carnage today results.

Socialism threatens to undermine the entire European Union. After Portugal's €78 billion bailout this week by the IMF, eyes turn to "sick" Spain.

Presidente Zapatero should resign immediately given his Party's sound rejection by Spaniards across the country.

Stay tuned for the clearest insights into global security issues as developments warrant!


Sunday, May 15, 2011

The EU Reckoning

An article in El País today echos GSM's analysis of the eurozone crisis: 5 Reasons Why Europe is Cracking.

 The "crack" is more like a gaping hole, but the realization is the same.

The confection of the European Union is not durable enough to survive the ghosts of history, mutual suspicions, and above all the failed economic system of socialism, the crux of the EU's problems.

One of our 6 Strategic Questions for 2010 was: "What next for the EU?"

Here are some other comments we have made:

Bloomberg - EU disintegration?
A Grim Future for the EU - Report

**If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

Sunday, May 8, 2011

Eurozone nearing end?

Charlemagne, the medieval Frankish king, is credited as the first uniter of Europe.

Napoleon and later Hitler also tried by force to forge one Europe united under one man. In the end, the tyrants went down to defeat.

The dream was resurrected by the peaceful Treaty of Rome of 1957, the beginnings of the European Union (EU) today.

The EU went on to embellish statism as its chief economic system.

There is the root cause for the EU's angst.

Sooner than later, money tends to dry up from overregulation, numerous onerous taxes, nanny-state interference in every aspect of life, and the disincentives built into the economy that reward sloth, not hard work.

EU Pain
The rapid expansion of Europe from the Urals to the Atlantic did not come without a price.

Despite the haunting past, the European elite pressed forward with their idea of a common European market, and a common European currency in an attempt to forge a faux European identity.

The north-south split it appears in the end trumps the east-west division in the EU.

Namely, Greece, Portugal, and Spain threaten to shred the EU false construction from papier-mache. The fragile southern economies as feared are a drag on the richer northern economies of France and Germany, and to a certain extent, the United Kingdom (not in the European Monetary Union).

All eyes on Greece
Rumors of Greece's exit from the EU scheme drubbed the euro and forced a hasty meeting of EU ministers in Luxembourg last Friday to discuss restructuring Athen's debt.

Should Greece drop the euro, like a pebble in water, it would ripple from the Adriatic to the Atlantic. The eurozone house of cards would likely collapse.

But, is there enough money and willpower left in the EU to prop up Athens?

Will EU taxpayers happily pony up to save the united Europe dream of which they were barely consulted?

Or (more likely) are the days numbered for the EU as we currently know it? Charlemagne would not be proud.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

Saturday, May 7, 2011

It's the ideology, President Obama

The United States struck a major, but not definitive, blow in its global war against Islamic fascist terrorism by killing the titular head of Al Qaeda, Osama Bin Laden (OBL).

While US President Obama has deservedly received criticism for his handling of the war on terror, his kudos for approving of the daring early morning raid deep in Pakistan are meritorious as well.

Ideology, not personality
One must remember  however that OBL represented a perverse ideology. While his death was retributive justice for 9/11, Islamic fascism and corrupt reading of the Koran are key elements of the terror fight.

Another element, the schism inside Islam, trumps both of the above. However, no outsider is able to much influence the course of the world's largest and fastest growing religion.

The paroxysm of violence associated with Islamic fascism can be countered and that should be the true focus of freedom lovers around the world.

Al Qaeda's tentacles
Al Qaeda's challenge has changed since 2001. Its branch in the Arabian peninsula (AQAP) threatens to topple President Saleh in Yemen. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) haunts France. AQIM totally denies the recent terrorist attack on a popular cafe for tourists in Marrakesh. Suspicions linger.

While the operational capability for another 9/11 is not certain, Al Qaeda has adapted to the pressure from the US and its allies.

No Silver Bullet
That is why taking down the deserving OBL is not a silver bullet despite high praise for the operation.

Vigilance against terrorism is a never ending battle.

As the IRA told former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher after its failed Brighton hotel blast in 1984: You have to be lucky all the time; we only have to be lucky once.

The war on Islamic terrorism rages on many fronts. Its pernicious ideology must be defeated.

More blows against Al Qaeda, Hamas, Hizbullah and their friends must be executed before that happens.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

Chavista Tyranny on the March

Chavista tyranny is on the march in Latin America.

Peru's embryonic democracy hangs in the balance.

Chavista Ollanta Humala, donning a business suit and tie and nice smile, but without overt Chavez endorsement this time unlike in the 2006 presidential race, appears bound for victory in the the second round on June 15. It is more probable given the poor choices for Peruvians.

The wolf in sheep's clothing may fool his fellow countrymen, but outside observers have seen this act before in Bolivia, almost in Honduras, and in Ecuador.

Electing those with dictatorial inclinations and a rabid ideology, already dooming Venezuela (and has already sunk Cuba), is usually not a good idea at all. He promises to reform the Peruvian constitution, just like Evo Morales in Bolivia, Rafael Correa in Ecuador, and almost like Mel Zelaya in Honduras.

Funny, the ''reform'' always seems to leave the Chavista in power for life.

The certain death of freedom in Peru and loss of another US ally in the region are one election away.

The elected Chavista dictators have not all had smooth roads to totalitarianism.

From aiding and abetting (including border refuge) Colombian FARC narcoterrorists, to roughing up his opposition, Rafael Correa's reign in Quito has had its fits and starts.

His melodramatic ''coup'' lie last year only follows the Chavista playbook that opponents are always out to assassinate them so this provides an automatic excuse to take away more freedom from the people.

Today, Correa's Diez Preguntas (10 Questions) apparently won a 57% SÍ from the people.

This is one of the most disheartening aspects of the Chavista agenda - winning at the ballot box that which could never be won as rebels in the field not so long ago.

The ''consulta nacional'' (national referendum) is a complete assault on the Ecuadoran constitution, market economics, and freedom.

The ''10 Questions" (en español) are laced with Chavista-charged language including attacks on private enterprise, ''reform of the judicial system'' especially detentions (...hmmm) and of course ''excesses'' by the press or telling the truth.

A free and independent (yes, that means privately-owned) press is a big obstacle to tyrants.

From Argentina where Cristina has relentlessly raged against media giant Clarin, to Bolivia where Evo Morales cowardly hid behind a supposed anti-racism law to muzzle the press, to Venezuela where Chavista goons have violently attacked Globovision's station, it is patently obvious the press must be ''reformed'' for tyranny to advance.

In wake of Correa's victory (and defeat for the country), Ecuador will be poorer, less free, and driven into greater despair by his Chavista schemes.

Dark clouds rumble on Latin America's horizon.

Given the corruption charges have been dropped against Chavista Mel Zelaya (ousted in Honduras for clumsily trying what Correa and Morales have pulled off), he could return and create mischief.

Honduras successfully fought off a Chavista coup - for now.

For Argentina, Bolivia, and Ecuador, the people opened the door to their tyrants. It is too late for them.

Peru has one last choice even a poor one to escape the Chavista mantle.

Will freedom triumph over fear?
***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

Monday, March 21, 2011

#Yemen's #Saleh Sealed fate

France 2 reports military officers are joining the protests in Yemen:

"L'un des principaux chefs de l'armée , le général Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, et des dizaines d'officiers ont annoncé lundi rejoindre la contestation, emboîtant le pas à des ministres, des ambassadeurs et des députés du parti au pouvoir qui ont fait défection."

"One of the key army chiefs, General Ali Moshen al-Ahmar, and a dozen officers  joined the protest on Monday, following in the footsteps of ministers, ambassadors and members of the party in power who have defected."

President Saleh's options are dwindling. He has lost control of the street and now the loyalty of the military who keep him in power.

He has no choice but to seek asylum.

Aftermath of Saleh's ouster
Will Al Qaeda and Iran fill the power vacuum near the Bab el-Mandab passageway, one of the seven strategic global oil shipping chokepoints?

The fall of Yemen will be an Islamic fascist terrorist prize.

Finally, an Iranian toehold on the Saudi peninsula does not augur well for the region, countries targeted by MidEast terrorism,  and those heavily dependent on the free flow of oil.
***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Ineffectual Libya Foray

The Western powers, led presumably by France and the United Kingdom, not the United States, have made a tragic mistake entering into the Libyan civil war.

Curious Motives
While the plight of the Libyan people is cited, the West's motivations for intervention in the Libya affairs are circumspect. The Libyan people have been held captive for over 40 years by the madman in Tripoli.

Their plight is now an international issue?

Paris and London are curious leaders of the military operations against the murderous Khadafy regime.

President Sarkozy of France is still reeling from the forced resignation of his foreign minister, Alliot-Marie, in wake of the Tunisian rebellion and her scandalous links to the former dictatorship in Tunis.

Prime Minister David Cameron's UK (under former Labour PMs Blair and Brown) paved the way for the release of the so-called "Lockerbie bomber" from prison in Scotland.

The United States has been very reluctant to take any position beyond empty rhetoric against one of its presumed inveterate enemies who sponsors international terrorism.

President Barak Obam had been hailed as a "friend" by Colonel Khadafy, and gently refers to "Libya" only in his remaks on the subject, avoiding Khadafy by name.

Too little, too late
While Colonel Khadafy is not unlike other blood-soaked autocrats without any legitimacy in MENA (Middle East and North Africa), the die is cast: Benghazi, the last significant rebel holdout and capital of "Free Libya" is bound to fall back into his fold.

The half-hearted Western response is too little too late.

Beyond the landing of ground forces to stop the pro-Khadafy forces advance on Benghazi, and short of forcefully removing the Tripoli tyrant, the military maneuver will be seen as an ineffectual foray.

Post-Uprising Libya
Khadafy is likely to unleash a wave of oppression in wake of his victory.

While weakened, he will have the resources to reform his military and security apparatus to remain in power.

The Western powers will have no leverage to manage the ''mad dog'' after the attacks.

"Limited" military action does not exist in the global security lexicon. Victory is what counts.

London, Paris, and Washington are officially at war with Tripoli. The trio is now committed to the rebels and their defeat will be the defeat of the Western powers.

Khadafy's propensity for terrorism is just one worrisome result from the failed Western intervention.

The West's tragic mistake of ''intervention on the cheap'' will make Libya more dangerous and belligerent in an increasingly unstable MENA bordering on war.
If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

Friday, February 25, 2011

Sanction Khadafy's Libya? Get Real!

Headlines today point to sanctions as the Western response to the quickly unfolding events in Libya:

Libye: Berlin pour des sanctions (Libya: Berlin for sanctions,

Francia y Reino Unido reclaman a la ONU la imposición de sanciones a Libia
(France and United Kingdom ask UN for imposition of sanctions for Libya,

Get real!
As the French press reports today, the third most important city in Libya, Misrata, has fallen to the rebels.

The circle is tightening around the cruel and crazy Khadafy. The battle for Tripoli is coming.

Not Sanctions, Troops
International powers may consider a peacekeeping force instead as the mercs fill the pro-Khadafy ranks.

Images of the macabre scenes in the streets, the spread of malnutrition, and general breakdown of society suggest a humanitarian disaster at the hands of a desperate despot.

Sanctions are often an excuse for doing nothing. The current country of Libya is ceasing to exist as rebel control expands.

More creative and bold ideas are needed to deal constructively with the post-Khadafy period. It is time to face that reality.

The European Union has the most the lose from the falling dominoes in North Africa from a refugee crisis.

If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

#Iran's Med Cruise through #Suez

The on-again off-again news reports about two Iranian warships set to pass through the Suez Canal for the first time since the Revolution is a curious item.

Press accounts have been both frenetic and erroneous. Why?

Chilling Egypt-Israel Relations
Terror, Inc. decided to run the gauntlet now to exploit the chaos in the wake of Mubarak's fall from power.

The Egyptian military junta has apparently decided to allow passage of the British-built Alvand frigate and a supply ship in a purported ''training mission'' in Syria. Sure.

One can speculate about the ''supplies'' Iran brings to Syria and its puppets Lebanon, Hizbullah and Hamas.

It will mark the first time an Iranian warship ever docked at a Syrian port.

The indecisiveness of Cairo to allow the passage shows the chaos in the decision-making process in the power vacuum following the exit of Hosni Mubarak.

It would be nice to know also to what degree the junta's relationship with Israel factored into the agreement. That the ships were granted passage could show a definite chill in Egyptian-Israeli relations.

Flexing naval power is an age-old tactic by states to prove their bona fides as a power player.

None of Iran's moves is calming or for fostering stability.

Terror,Inc's designs to become a regional hegemon are explicit. The quest for nuclear primacy already is an unsettling issue rattling an already shaky region.

Moreover, widening Iranian and Syrian cooperation is another facet of the Iranian cruise into the Med via the Suez. Both terrorist states are aligned for the destruction of Israel.

No doubt Damascus is still fuming about the preventative strike by Israel which destroyed its budding nuclear plant in 2007.

Events in the Middle East are shifting daily, but one observation stands pat - a regional showdown is brewing among the states aimed at the Jewish state.

Whether Sunni or Shia, the Islamist fascist factions agree Israel must be vanquished and plot to realize this perverse dream.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

The #MidEast Ablaze

While Global Security Monitor prepares a more thorough review of the Middle East in Mubarak's wake, we offer an interim note.

From Morocco to Af-Pak, an arc of fire consumes the old order of the Middle East.

The diverse region of Arab monarchs and despots will forever be changed by the so-called Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia. Its ramifications rattle the brittle regimes with scant legitimacy to govern.

A new Middle East is emerging with each shift in the political sands of a storied region wracked by religious warfare, economic despair, and shattered dreams of the angry youth raging in the Arab Street.

Brittle Regimes
Despite their vaunted security apparatus, secret police, and strong-arm rule, in the end, the fall of former  ''President'' Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia and ''President'' Hosni Mubarak of Egypt seemed anti-climatic.

Ali, 71, and Mubarak, 82, held in check more radical elements in their respective countries as long as possible. The brittle rule of the old men was clearly out of step of the needs and desires of the Arab Street and they paid the ultimate price by those who rule by force.

The shock waves of their collapse continue to undermine regional autocrats.

Falling Dominoes
When will the last domino fall?

Morocco. Algeria. Libya. Yemen. Jordan. Bahrain. Monarchs and dictators face the ire of their people. The thirst for freedom is innate in the human soul amid a world where slavery is the norm.

Zany Colonel Khadafy of Libya appears ready to fight to the bitter end. Unlike Tunisia and Egypt, the Libyan strongman has no compunction for using the full weight of the military against the people.

The defection to Malta of the two air force colonels who refused to do so gives little relief. Reports of other planes bombing the people demonstrated yet some loyalty to the regime.

The expected return of a key opposition leader to Bahrain cannot redound positively for the rulers on the tiny oil kingdom in the Persian Gulf as a tug-of-war between Saudi Arabia and Iran plays out.

Algerian strongman Abdelaziz Bouteflika has thus far staved off the ''Egyptian effect,'' but it is  yet not clear he can resist the demands from the Street for an end to his authoritarian rule and miserable living conditions.

It is difficult to determine just when the dominoes will stop falling.

Economic Consequences
MENA (Middle East and North Africa) is home to the world's largest proven oil reserves.

Like a full goblet of wine, the slightest jolt in political, economic, and social events in the region and it spills out and prices soar.

The world economic recovery is fragile pressured by the spike in commodity prices and now the surge in oil threatening to undercut any gains made.

Who fills the vacuum?
When dictators fall, the strongest and most organized opposition group has the best shot of claiming the mantle to lead.

In many cases in the regimes that are on the brink in the MENA, Islamist fascists are poised to bring order to the resulting chaos.

Speculation about ''democracy'' in countries who have only known repression and misrule is only happy talk. Only Israel has managed a Western-style pluralist government with legitimate consent of the governed.

The potential for mal-actors to exploit the power vacuums emerging in the breakdown of the previous dictatorial orders is great. GSM explores the winners and losers in its coming examination of the phenomenon occurring the region today.

Final Words
The fear of the strongman dictating the course of affairs in individual Arab countries is over. Those lucky to survive the current wave of opposition must reform or flee.

The rage in the Arab Street has steadily built among the delusions of the dysfunctional society in each of the afflicted countries.

High unemployment, squalid living conditions, and broken dreams despite the wealth of the country and/or its despotic leader fueled the wave of opposition to the older Middle East order.

Stir in a liberal dose of Islamist fascism, nuclear ambitions of Iran and Syria, a Pakistan moving closer to implosion, and a notable decline in US influence, it is not difficult for a dispassionate observer to see more upheaval in a  region that plays a significant role in the world economy as long as oil is its lifeblood.

If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

Monday, January 24, 2011

Colombia Soldiers on with Cuts in US Aid

Bogotá vows to continue its fight against narco-terrorists according to a report at ''Colombia no bajará guardia en lucha antidrogas ante recorte de ayuda de EEUU'' (Colombia to keep guard up in anti-drug fight despite US aid cut).

The marked decline in funds disbursed under the so-called Plan Colombia (begun in 2001) comes under a policy shift of US President Obama.

According to the article, the focus of US efforts in the international drug war is ''más enfocada en la prevención y en el tratamiento de los adictos (more focused on prevention and treatment of addicts.).

The Bush Administration before had given priority to attacking the drug problem at its source - confronting the narcoterrorist Farc guerrilla fighting Bogotá for more than 50 years - and also shore up an important ally in a very dangerous neighborhood.

Given the Left's visceral hatred for Plan Colombia, it is not very surprising the Obama Administration is content to let the funds dry up whatever the regional implications.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

Friday, January 7, 2011

#Mexico´s #Calderón vows to continue war on #narcos

In Mexico, some 30,000 have perished in the narcoterror war since Presidente Calderón started his crackdown on the drug cartels in order to save his country, according to CNN.

Many were affiliated with drug-trafficking as internecine warfare between the rival cartels contributed to the death count.

Capos Arturo Beltrán Leyva, El Barbas; Ignacio Nacho Coronel; Arturo Ezequiel Cárdenas Guillén, Tony Tormenta, y Nazario Moreno González, El Chayo have died as evidence of  big blows inflicted on the leadership of the criminal organizations by authorities.

The question posited by GSM is a strategic one: Can Calderón save the country from the grimy grips of narcos or  does Mexico collapse?

He has two years left in his term.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

Monday, January 3, 2011

Chinese Missile Buildup - Opportunity or Threat?

Three countries worry policymakers the most in Western capitals: China, North Korea, and Iran.  The first two have nuclear weapons and the latter is in hot pursuit.

All three are proliferators of missile and nuclear technology to some degree. China and Iran seek to dominate their respective regions at the expense of US power.

China's many objectives, one focus
An important article last weekend in the Washington Post tackles China's conventional missile buildup: Why China's missiles should be our focus.

Authors Mark Stokes and Dan Blumenthal see the New START ratified by the US Senate last December as misguided given Beijing's conventional short and intermediate-range ballistic and cruise missiles.

Beijing benefits as a non-signatory of the US-Russian INF (Intermediate Nuclear Forces) Treaty from the Cold War.

That China is building military power commensurate with its growing economic power is not news. While intense debate centers upon Beijing's many objectives, an ''overriding'' focus remains reunification with Taiwan.

Missile Manipulation
China's most aggressive missile program in the world threatens the East Asian power calculus. The article lists the multifaceted missile program. (see an graphic)

Its over 1,200 short-range missiles are aimed squarely at manipulating and recapturing the ''renegade province,'' Taiwan.

Its long and intermediate-range ballistic and cruise missiles advance an anti-access/denial strategy to deter any US defense of Taiwan given Washington's formal commitment to Taipei.

In particular, Beijing's DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), the so-called ''carrier killer'' concerns defense planners.

For decades, China has pursued a gambit to use land-based missiles to threaten targets at sea.

The Chinese missile buildup is an opportunity to soberly size up its existential threat to the Western Pacific, home for two of the world's largest economies and strategic choke points.

The credibility of the US commitment to Taiwan is under strain as China's Second Artillery intends to intimidate neighbors (India and Japan) and drive the US out of the region.

The arrival of the Asian century, China's rise to global power status, and relative US decline portend seismic shifts in global security.

It is time for Realpolitik approaches by freedom-loving states to counter the emerging military threats from the China challenge to the tense peace in the region today.
If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.

Saturday, January 1, 2011

Top 6 Strategic Questions for 2011

The past is prologue.

As we go forward, issues trending in the international affairs arena in 2010 are poised to intensify in 2011.

It is easy to get lost in daily press reports and miss the fundamental understanding of what really is happening.

While no one can accurately predict the future course of global security no more than the weather, informed estimates of military and diplomatic analyses must be made.

As GSM peers down the road, we ask the following 6 Strategic Questions (see our questions in 2010) to provoke thought and focus debate on the issues impacting global security now and likely in the near future.
1. Does despotism deepen in Russia ahead of 2012 presidential elections? Putin's Russia slid closer to a  one-man rule in 2010. Curiously the titular president Medvedev pressed his US counterpart Obama to ratify the ''new'' START Treaty for reductions in nuclear ICBMs and limits on future development of any anti-ballistic missile systems. But, the Russian Duma did not see any urgency at all and deferred any action until this year. The rule of law was severely weakened with the recent imprisonment of Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev, former Yukos oil executives, for what many observers see as a penalty for opposing Putin. His grip is tightening on all parts of the government ahead of his expected run in the 2012 presidential elections.

2. Is the Middle East destined for another armed clash? The Economist muses about clashes between Israel and Iran, its newly-replenished Hamas and Hizbolla proxies, and even Syria over Tehran's nuclear quest. Events last year could precipitate fighting in 2011. The spectacular failure of the latest US-led round of Palestinian-Israeli peace talks weighs on the scale. While estimates vary of when Iran may ''go nuclear'' given delays from the Stuxnet computer virus attack, it is possible Israel could decide to act sometime this year.

3. Can Calderon of Mexico save his country from narcoterrorism? Mexico is torn asunder by the war between the narcotraficantes and the government and internecine savagery between rival cartels for primacy. More than 22,000 have died since Presidente Felipe Calderón cracked down on the narcos and the border with the US is on fire. The systemic corruption, a weak judiciary, and suspect  federales only complicate any ''victory'' over the well-armed and well-financed narcos. US planners as far back as 2008 pondered a total collapse of the country. Calderón must act decisively to avoid that fate.

4. Does Brazil solidify its ''middle power'' status and stand up for freedom? Happy talk surrounds Brazil, Latin America's largest country and economy. Brazilians begin 2011 with a new president, Dilma Rousseff, the first female to take charge in Brasilia. Its oil success, if managed well, could pave the path to an economically stronger and less poorer regional  hegemon. Outgoing President Lula left Brazil better after 8 years of rule. However if Ms. Rousseff continues his left-bent embrace of neighbor Chavez and outreach to Iran by meddling again in the nuclear question, the turn away from supporting freedom abroad would detract from Brazil's attempt to gain international currency. Is Brazil ready for prime time?

5. Does India effectively balance against the Sino-Pak encirclement? China is India's chief adversary in south Asia. Beijing's ''string of pearls'' encirclement of India is nothing new. As both a maritime and land power, its regional power projection gives New Delhi options to counter the Sino-Pak gambit. US President Obama's visit last November bolstered India's standoff with both its neighbors. The chaos in the Afghanistan-Pakistan theater and China's rising aggressiveness challenge India to chart a delicate course.

6. Is there peaceful reunification on the Korean peninsula? Leadership transitions in totalitarian regimes are often dicey deals and in a regime as opaque as North Korea, doubly. Kim Jong-il named his third son as successor, a mere 27 year-old, to head up the dying regime in Pyongyang. While some observers say the transition is in its early stages, it is clear that freedom-loving countries including South Korea can barely spare any more existence of the nuclear-tipped, nuclear proliferating, and otherwise thuggish gang in Pyongyang. China, however, does not want a democratic and unified Korea on its border and thus continues to subsidize and prop up the NE Asian menace. Along with its proxy Iran, China can frustrate US goals in the respective regions. North Korea is enriching uranium and antagonizing the South at will, all in the throes of a transition. Is it possible the Pyongyang gang's lease on life is running short?
GSM is committed to providing the keen analysis our loyal readers demand and deserve.

Count on our continued commitment to providing the information and insights you have come to enjoy.

Happy 2011!

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to for a prompt evaluation.