"Sudden and Rapid" Collapse of Mexico?

Global Security Monitor presents....

The US Joint Forces Command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" (conspicuously unavailable the last two days online from the official government site) covering global assessments mentioned Pakistan and Mexico as on the verge of collapse, as reported by the El Paso Times this week and other news outlets.

[Read the entire report at globalsecurity.com]

The report matter-of-factly states this is a "worse case scenario."

'The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the
government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure
are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs
and drug cartels.'

Univision, the top Spanish-news network in the US, ahead of the JFC assessment, reported warnings from the White House about Mexican democracy in peril (peligro para la democracia) by narcoterrorism. Mexico extradited 10 narcos alone to the US in 2008.


Blood-soaked battles between narcocaratels in the streets of Mexico (consuming innocent bystandards, many journalists) and corruption of government institutions appear to be near levels once reached in Colombia (in Spanish). The Bush Administration pushed the Merida Initiative to provide the Calderon Administration resources to combat the internal instability.

The US State Department's new travel advisory (01/17/09) about Mexico states "increased levels of violence make it imperative that travelers understand the risks of travel to Mexico."

The question remains - will Mexico hold?

The implications of a "failed state" for its northern neighbor already divided on southern immigration are huge. A human stampede in the chaos of a "sudden, rapid" collapse of Mexico could lead to direct intervention to stabilize the largest Spanish-speaking country of some 110 million.