Brazil's Rocky Road Ahead

 Sao Paulo, 31/10/2010, 11h54BST

Dilma Rousseff

Worldwide headlines in the papers today point to an expected win by Worker Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) Dilma Rousseff in the second round to succeed her mentor and current President Lula da Silva of Brazil.

Red flags abound surrounding the choice of Ms. Rousseff to lead Brazil.

A vote for Ms. Rousseff is blind. There is no evidence she is ready to lead Latin America's largest country and economy.

A rather empty and nasty campaign based on Lula's reputation and success propelled her bid. His accomplishments - not hers.

Ms. Rousseff is a ''true believer'' as a former leftist revolutionary during the military government. But, once a leftist revolutionary always a leftist revolutionary.

Press restrictions are on their way to Brazil as authoritarianism grows under PT one-party control.

Press censorship will undoubtedly redound to erosion of personal freedom.

The Brazilian experiment with democracy (just a short 25 years) will be challenged severely in the future with the continuance of statists in power. 

The projected victory of Ms. Rousseff today opens a new chapter in Brazil's history.

While ''continuity'' was sold to soothe the country's doubts about her since her radical past is well-known, it is a mirage.

Expect a sharp left turn ahead instead.

Brazil faces a rocky road ahead on many fronts.
***
If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Brazil to Polls Next Sunday

Sao Paulo, Brazil - 21h50 - Sunday - 

It appears the leftist Workers Party candidate, Dilma Rousseff, is still the favorite to succeed the party's popular incumbent President Lula in Round Two of Brazil's presidential election.

However, more one-party rule intrigue and the gender gap have surfaced as the election nears.

Apparently, audio recordings attest to the fact that the Justice Ministry received requests by Ms. Rousseff and others to compile dossiers on her political adversaries, according to Veja magazine.

On Sunday, the daily  Folha in Sao Paulo revealed payments were made to workers in the ministry for the dossier.

In a separate report, Folha reported a gender gap as ''Dilma's Achilles heel.''

However, the gap is not what you may suspect. More men (51%) support Ms. Rousseff than women (43%)!

Is there sufficient doubt about the sanity of one-party rule given the reported abuses of power? Can she bridge the gender gap in time?

Veteran observers say ''yes,'' but what about the voters on Halloween Sunday?
***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Sarko falls below 30% support

The French Senate voted again for President Sarkozy's retirement reform last week despite mayhem in la rue (street).

Over the weekend, Le Figaro publsihed an Opinionway survey showing support for ending the strikes and for the unions to respect the vote.

On a more troubling note for the French president, an Ifop-JDD poll on Sunday showed his popularity slipping below 30% - Popularité: Sarkozy passe sous les 30%, the first time since May 2007.

The alphabet soup of unions and the militant youth show no signs of ceding as final passage of retirement reform is set for Wednesday.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

ZP's Spain in Tailspin

The ''accidental'' Socialist president of Spain, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, is in a tailspin and threatens to take his country down with him.

He only was elected in the confusion of the March 2004 Al Qaeda bombings at the end of the campaign against the incumbent more conservative Popular Party (PP). He never was qualified for the top leadership position and Spain's fortunes have only reversed under his unsteady governance.

Last week, he shuffled his government including summarily dumping his foreign minister, Miguel Angel Moratinos. He quipped - ''Am I the worst minister?''

After the general strike earlier in the month by his hard left union allies and the continuing degeneration of the country's economy, Zapatero had to do something to re-energize his listless government.

As the Madrid daily El Mundo reports, ZP (as he was once affectionately known) winked at the hard left  and his base to solidify his untenable position.

Mariano Rajoy, leader of the opposition PP, summed it up best - ''Yes, we need a new government, but one through the ballot box so that no only the music changes, but the director of the orchestra and the score.''

The country definitely deserves better.

Socialism is a remarkable failure around the world and ZP's Spain is no exception.
***
If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Sarko Defies Leftist Opposition

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, to his credit,  is not flinching in his latest policy move to modernize France - modest retirement reform by boosting the minimum age by only two years, from 60 to 62. (LeFigaro: Sarkozy confiant malgré le durcissement du conflit - Sarkozy confident despite escalation of conflict).

Even this timid effort sent the usual crybaby suspects spilling into la rue (the street) from the alphabet soup of Hard Left les syndicats (trade unions) to the actual group that has most to lose if he fails - militant students - all in an attempt to defend the indefensible status quo.

The government claimed victory today in the numbers game (''la mobilisation a été la plus faible depuis le début du mois de septembre'' - Le Parisien - mobilization was the weakest since September) as les syndicats protested to the contrary. Le Figaro figures a 10% inflation in the numbers given by les syndicats.

Just when it seemed France was headed for a showdown on Monday since the refinery unions cut oil supply  to airports nationwide, including Charles de Gaulle, the most important, outside Paris, even that service has been restored ( L'oléoduc qui livre Roissy et Orly est à nouveau en service - Le Parisien - The pipeline that delivers Roissy and Orly is back in service).

While it is not perfectly clear Sarkozy has escaped an apparent cul-de-sac taking on the entrenched Hard Left labor and its allies yet again, he is to be saluted for his courage and vision to bring sanity to France's sclerotic economic growth and structural barriers holding back its progress.
***
If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Sarko's Cul-de-sac?

À la grève!

October 12 - France is on strike and the reverberations are spreading across the Continent with cancelled flights and cuts to train service with Italy and Switzerland. (see Europa se paraliza)

Can French President Nicolas Sarkozy defy the street full of organized labor protesters to solidify the country's finances?

President Sarkozy wants to raise the national retirement age from 60 to 62 by 2018 and the French Senate approved the measure earlier this month.

Articles with ''...les syndicats se félicitent d'une mobilisation en hausse'' (unions welcome greater mobilization...) fill the French press.

A recent Ifop-Sud Ouest poll shows an overwhelming 71% of the public ''estiment que le mouvement social contre le projet gouvernemental est justifié'' (say the movement against the government project is justified).

Even this modest move of two more years before retirement puts France ahead of the United Kingdom at 65 and Germany at 67, two countries also facing fiscal crises.

While a general strike like in Spain last week has not hit France, wide swaths of the public sector have joined the movement to damage further an already weak economy barely growing at 1% and perhaps a revised downward of 2% in 2011.

Today, even the organized youth spilled into the street to increase the numbers in the leftist campaign to defeat Sarkozy and prepare for the Socialists return to power in the presidential elections in 2012.

The youth are actually ones who have the most at stake and face a grim future if the government cannot align revenue and expenditures today.

Unlike its EU neighbors, France's population continues to grow (by 9 million over the next four decades). This demographic fact is stressing its generous social system.

France's budget deficit is 7.5% of GDP, well exceeding the 3% target set by the European Union and is unsustainable, a reality many refuse to ponder.

Past administrations failed to enact meaningful labor reform when the heat from the street forced their hands.

While a cabinet shuffle is expected by the end of the month to re-energize his administration, so far there is no sign Sarkozy is going to fold in the test of wills.

His prime minister, M. François Fillon, today reiterated his intention "mener cette réforme [des retraites] à son terme (see this reform [retirement] to its end).

Bonne chance!
***
If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

The China Conundrum

Top Chinese activist Liu Xiaobo, 54, won the Nobel Peace Prize for 2010 in a clear rebuke to Beijing.

Will he be allowed to collect the award given he has been in a Chinese jail for over 10 years? The state has never defended his arrest.

Now his wife has been arrested as well after visiting him.

This recent news in the China-sphere comes amidst rumors of a currency war with the US, a recent heated territorial dispute with Japan, a military surge in Asia,  and becoming the world's second largest economy.

The China conundrum is: Can an authoritarian regime continue to prosper economically without political freedom?

So far, Beijing has managed to keep its bargain with its people after the Tiananmen Square disaster in 1989: you may get rich, but do not ask for political freedom.

Even the widely-respected scholar Robert Kagan believes economic freedom can be separated from political freedom.

Liu Xiaobo, however, rejects the false dichotomy by demanding political freedom to match the economic freedom at the price of his own.

Some observers believe the false dichotomy works as long as the Chinese economy continues to prosper.

China has made revolutionary economic progress since the 1960s and rightly seeks its place at the leadership table of the world community.

Rights and respect come with responsibility.

The absence of political freedom for its citizens will continue to undermine its claim to the mantle as a responsible global leader until Lui Xiobo and his countrymen can respectfully dissent without the fear of state repression.
***
If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Venezuela - Narcotics/Terrorist Haven

Hugo Chavez's Venezuela is a paradise for the illicit drug trade and international terrorists.

Thirty members of Spain's murderous domestic terrorist band, ETA, continue to wage armed struggle from Venezuela (La treintena de etarras en Venezuela sigue defendiendo la «lucha armada»), the Madrid daily ABC reports today.

ETA trains in Venezuela openly and Spanish President Jose Luiz Zapatero ''mira por otro lado'' (turns a blind eye to) the blatant dirty business. Incredible.

In addition, democratic neighbor Colombia, engaged in a civil war for more than 40 years with the narco-terrorists, FARC, presented more evidence just in July to the OAS (Organization of American States) showing the narcoterror group's sophisticated weaponry.

ETA provided material support for a (disrupted) FARC attack on the new Colombian president, Juan Manuel Santos, at his inauguration in Bogotá last August.

Bogotá has well documented that the FARC is a guest of Chavez and has safe haven to launch its murderous campaigns at will from the Venezuelan side of the border.

The Venezuela-FARC narcoterrorist connection even leads to Al Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM).

Mix in news of elite Iranian Qod (Revolutionary Guards) officers (denied by Chavez) in Venezuela. It is not difficult to understand the scope and direction of Chavez's designs for his country and beyond.

Moreover, Chavez's Venezuela is a narco-paradise, a transshipment point for the very lucrative Latin American drug trade.

The car bombing in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, in July demonstrates how the long nefarious tentacles of narcoterrorism, state-supported by Venezuela, is a much wider and serious problem than any diplomatic row between Madrid and Caracas over ETA terras. 

The nexus of narcotics and terrorists, the presence of elite Iranian Revolutionary Guardsmen, and undermining Colombia and Spain, and perhaps even Mexico, as well as tentacles stretching into Africa's Sahel, shows Venezuela to be a rogue regime.

Drug money fuels narcoterrorism and propels Chavez's sinister regional ambitions to spread his noxious ''twenty-first socialism'' beyond Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Nicaragua. Honduras successfully resisted last year.

Chavez is a complete menace to his own people as well as democracy and peace in the region and beyond.

The sooner the peace-loving world admits that fact and takes a harder line against Caracas the better.

Perhaps an expected Republican-led US Congress can pressure the Obama White House to seriously review its policy toward Caracas in 2011.
***
If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Ecuador - The Coup That Never Happened

Budgetary cuts and less promotions, as part of President Correa's austerity program, fueled a police protest in Ecuador on September 30.

In an act of machismo, Correa went to a police barracks in Quito, the capital, to confront the grumbling in the rank and file, tore open his shirt, and dared them to kill him.

The police responded by pelting him with rocks and tear gas was fired. The president fled across the street to a police hospital where supposedly he was ''kidnapped.''

Eyewitnesses in the hospital dispute Correa's claim of victimization of being kidnapped and that he could have left the hospital anytime he wanted. His grip on the country was never in jeopardy - a coup that never happened.

The military brass stood firm while reportedly the air force and navy ''reluctantly'' supported him.

The paroxysm of police protests around the country reflected Correa's increasingly unpopular ''populist'' moves after securing a new constitution in a referendum in 2008 giving the president broader powers.

The eco-socio-politico state of affairs in Ecuador is worsening. International investors increasingly are wary after defaulting on part of the national debt, increasing pressure on foreign oil firms, and a general direction of a statist economics under the umbrella of the so-called ''citizen's revolution.''

Correa has put Ecuador firmly in the Chavista orbit, apparently been implicated in dealings with the Colombian narcoterrorists the FARC,  kicked the US out of its Manta airbase, and maintained chumminess with Iran.

He is exploiting the latest crisis to concentrate more power in his hands, silence the opposition, and advance his vision of an Ecuador under the so-called ''twenty-first century socialism'' which is just as much a failure as the twentieth century.

This time he held fast with the aid of the military. What about the next?

***
If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Brazil Election Update: On to Second Round

The final poll - the actual vote - painted a mixed picture on Sunday when Brazilians went to the polls to choose a new president, federal representatives and senators, governors, and state representatives.

The incumbent Partido Trabalhista (PT) made gains in the Senate, but President Lula's hand-picked favorite to succeed him, Dilma Rousseff, fell short of the 50%  needed to avoid a longer campaign and greater scrutiny. She scored only 46.9%, less than Lula's 48.9% in 2006.

Given a strong economy, an adored President Lula, and  party hacks engaged in chicanery to spy on her closest rival, the former Marxist guerrilla had the wind at her back. Yet she was thwarted from obtaining a clean sweep therefore forcing a second round on October 31.

Election polls before the election uniformly gave Ms. Rousseff a comfortable lead above the 50% mark ahead of her main rival bidding to replace Lula, Jose Serra of the Social Democrat Party, who scored 33% of the vote. His party racked up four governorships in the first round showing muscle at the state level.

The third candidate, soft-spoken Marina Silva of the Green Party, is now the king maker after grabbing nearly 20% of the vote. While her followers lean toward the Serra camp, four weeks is a long time in politics.

It is clear the unease reported in the pre-election post pervades the electorate. More than 50% voted against the incumbent PT party's candidate, Ms. Rousseff. She is not  Lula.

Her well-manicured campaign based almost solely on Lula's sky-high popularity backfired.

Now she will have to speak up and attempt to reassure the public her revolutionary past is really history and she is prepared to lead Brazil forward on its date with destiny as a powerhouse in the XXI century.

***
If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Israel-PLO ''Peace" Talks Failing Yet Again

News reports already signal another doomed round of ''peace talks'' between Israel and the PLO: Citing Israeli settlement-building, Palestinians rule out talks.

''Cautiously hopeful'' US President Obama is as susceptible (maybe more) than his predecessors to the hubris in the failure to ink a successful agreement between Israel and the PLO since launching the face-to-face talks in early September.

President Bashar Assad of Syria makes a poignant point: US President Obama was only seeking to score domestic political points with the new round of discussions, a cynical, but perhaps accurate assessment.

Of course the building of Israeli settlements (on its own territory) was a ready-made excuse for the PLO to play to save face. Israel does not owe the PLO anything, especially after saving it when Hamas booted them from the Gaza Strip in 2007.

Frankly, there is no peace at all in  ''peace talks'' which are designed to get Israel to make concessions - to cut its throat in the name of countless diplomats and its enemies who have never made this one concession - stopping attempts to end the Jewish state by any means possible.

Israel is justified in its protecting its national interests like any other sovereign country.

Given the PLO is in no position to impose ''peace'' on Jerusalem, it is best to re-assess and face a reality without its own homeland given both must confront a common enemy - Hamas.

There are certainly more pressing issues than the so-called Israeli-Palestinian Question for diplomats to mull as the Middle East region continues to slide toward war.

***
If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

Unease on Brazil's Election Eve, Dispatch from São Paulo

Dilma Rousseff, presidenta in waiting 

Dateline: São Paulo, Brazil, 18h02 BST

All that is left is the voting.

Short of a stunning reversal, Dilma Rousseff of the incumbent Partido Trabalhista (Workers' Party) will become Brazil's first woman president with a knock-out in the first round on Sunday.


Unease
Widely-popular President Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva tapped her to succeed him and his adoration by the masses will probably translate into an overwhelming victory.

However, her own governing agenda is deliberately an enigma and her constant dodging of public debates with her lackluster opponents only can fuel unease about the prevailing thought that a vote for Dilma is a vote for continuity.

Sadly, it is not. There is no evidence Dilma will follow the same pragmatic policy prescriptions which conferred superstar status on President Lula.

As a former guerrilla fighter who was tortured upon capture in the 1970s during the country's right-wing military dictatorship, she is still a ''true believer'' cut from the Latin American Leftist revolutionary quilt.

The presidential contest has been marred by dirty tricks against Dilma's closet opponent, Jose Serra, at the hands of Partido Trabalhista apparatchiks in the bureaucracy, press censorship when the story leads too close to the ruling party, and sharp barbs by Lula aimed at the Fourth Estate for seeking the truth. All should be red flags for those voting for continuing one-party rule in Brazil.

However, Dilma's political career outside the ranks of revolutionary has been marked by controversies.

Socio-Economic-Political Success
Lula, to his credit, kept his predecessor’s liberal economic policy orientation and restored market confidence in Brazil by taming inflation and stepping up privatization.  A larger middle class has rapidly emerged since 2003. Over 30 Brazilian firms figure in Forbes 2000 list released in April this year. Petrobras, the state-shared mega-oil conglomerate, just garnered $70 billion in its first public stock offering.

Ironically Lula presided over an economic miracle which surely would not have occurred with his own party's command and control philosophy.

Brazil, the ''B'' in the so-called BRIC (Brazil Russian India China) club of developing states is thus prosperous and growing even with a perceived overvalued real currency.  High tax revenues from a churning economy allowed social experiments like the uneven Bolsa Familia program to fight the country's crippling poverty. Official government figures show a 81% drop in poverty between 1995 and 2008 with much more to be done.

Errant Foreign Forays
Strong economics at home has accrued a measure of diplomatic clout abroad though squandered some by President Lula.

He cozied up to Terror,Inc. in Tehran including brokering  a deal with Turkey that attempted to shield the Islamic Republic from ''tough'' UN sanctions over its nuclear armament gambit.

Lula's closeness with President Chavez in Venezuela and his remarks in March comparing Cuban political dissidents to ''criminals'' for only wanting freedom are disturbing.

Dilma's Dilemma
''The world's most powerful woman,'' as dubbed by the UK's Independent, should she indeed win to lead Brazil forward into the twenty-first century must prove she will really continue with Lula's sensible policies and not fall back to the Latin American Left's ruinous socio-economic-political policies.

The new president inherits a Brazil brimming with promise, reveling in oil wealth, and enjoying broad respect around the world.

As usual in transitions within the same ruling party, the trick is to sustain the past victories and build upon them for a more successful tomorrow. Can a President Rousseff deliver?
****
If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please send an email to wtglobalanalytics@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.

More Pain in Spain...Credit Rating Cut by Moody's

Spain's woes continue and threaten the entire EU project...

Friday, 1st October 2010

EU ECONOMY

HARRY BANKS 

 

RATINGS agency Moody’s cut Spain’s credit to Aa1 from AAA yesterday, removing the last of its highly-valued triple-A ratings but saying it did not expect to cut again soon thanks to efforts at fiscal reform.

***If you need research from open sources in Spanish, French, or Portuguese and presented in a stylish English language report or a translation of documents in said languages to English, please contact Professor Winn at by sending an email to mrenglish101@gmail.com for a prompt evaluation.