US-Russia START Deal Imperiled?

 The shift in power in the Democrat-controlled US Senate - the loss of the 60th "super majority" vote with Scott Brown´s electoral victory in Massachusetts - could complicate Mr. Obama´s push for a drastic cutback in nuclear missiles between Russia and the United States as explained in this editorial from a career diplomat in the Russian daily Saint Petersburg Times: Reset in Danger of Being Set Back.

Given the US Senate's unique role in approving any treaties, the new START treaty could stall. That would not be a terrible development either.
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Obama Comment on Iran in Time Interview

Mr. Obama´s one year anniversary interview with Time Magazine made headlines worldwide with his comments on how he underestimated the difficulty of the so-called MidEast peace process. While dangerous to telegraph your intellectual vacuousness to your enemies, it is not news now. America´s enemies know very well they have a pacifist in the White House.

However, it is his comments on Iran that are more worthy of exploration:

Excerpt 1
 On Iran, one of our trickiest foreign policy challenges, we have held the international community together, both in our engagement strategy, but also now as we move into a dual-track approach. Which is, If they don't accept the open hand, we've got to make sure they understand there are consequences for breaking international rules. 

Iran is not tricky. Terror, Inc. is pursuing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to blast Israeli and American cities. Is that tricky? The president needs to be forthright with the American people.

Iran slapped that extended hand, Mr. Obama and you have done nothing as a result. There is no consequence saying NO to the US while you are in the White House. The only "dual-track approach" (trying to sound so smart) is if  Iran breaks an arbitrary pre-determined deadline (like the last one at the end of 2009 of which you are silent and hope no one remembers) is to issue meaningless paper-based threats with no plan to back them up with military force - the only response totalitarian states respect. International rules? (Back to your lawyer training!)

The Iranian nuclear program and long-range missiles are geared for Tel Aviv and Washington. It is American rules Teheran breaks! Iran is a clear and present danger to the United States of America and you are clueless in face of the danger.

International rules are only valid if there is one nation or a group of nations who act to enforce them. However, that requires tough decisions and we already know how tough the MidEast is for you. Lawyers make lousy presidents and worse foreign policy practitioners. The Hobbesian international system is messier than a civil or criminal trial in a US courtroom. The sooner you learn that fact the better you will be.

Excerpt 2
 It's going to be tough, but I think the relationship we've developed with Russia will be very helpful. The outreach we've done to our traditional NATO allies will be very helpful. The work that we've done with China — including the work we've done with China to enforce sanctions against North Korea — will help us in dealing more effectively with Iran.

Perhaps Mr. Obama saw the recent Reuters headline: Russia says to start Iran nuclear plant in 2010. We cite this action (see Net Assessment: Iran) as the bookend of the current phase of playing pattycake with Iran on the nuclear issue. Once the Russians start up Bushehr, all bets are off. So, it seems throwing the Czech Republic and Poland under the bus on the missile shield did not buy any love with Moscow, Mr. Obama. Oops.

China? Beijing´s strategic interests are too intertwined with Iran to risk any trouble with stronger sanctions on Terror, Inc, at the US´s behest. China can also say NO (and has) to the US without any consequences.

When Moscow and Beijing definitively thwart "tougher sanctions" (whatever that is) on Iran at the United Nations, Mr. Obama´s words in these two excerpts will ring oh so hollow.

If Mr. Obama is overmatched in domestic policy, he is doubly out of his league in foreign policy. The intelletcual leftist foreign policy apparatus underestimates American enemies and too often blames America first, not exactly a winning combination.

Mr. Obama has a failed foreign policy that has not stopped Iran.

He has a fundamental misunderstanding of the international system and his obesesion with pounding allies (including Israel) and cozing up with enemies is more than self-defeating. Add leftist political correctness in the war on terror and you have the perfect storm for physical damage to the United States and its citizens at the hands of a mistaken ideological president beholden to a radical world view.

Showdown in Buenos Aires: Update 1

The latest in the test of wills between La Presidenta Christina Kirchner of Argentina and Central Bank Director Martin Redrado apparently leaves him in the country´s long unemployment lines.

The tiff began when La Presidenta Kirchner asked for about $6.5  billion in central bank reserves to pay part of the country´s external debt this year. The Central Bank Director rebuffed the Casa Rosada (Argentina´s White House) and drew the immediate ire of La Presidenta. No one denies Mrs. Kirchner.

In wake of an important court decision on Friday, the daily Clarín reports Aníbal Fernández: "Redrado no entra más al Banco Central" - Anibal Fernandez:: "Redrado will not return to the Central Bank."

Martín Redrado ha quedado en una confusa situación en su rol de presidente del Banco Central tras los nuevos fallos de la Cámara en lo Contencioso Administrativo Federal. Por un lado, ese tribunal avaló claramente el fallo que respaldó su postura de resistir el decreto que apuntaba a crear un fondo para pagar vencimientos de la deuda externa con reservas federales.

Martin Redrado has been left in a confused situation in his role as president of the Central Bank after the latest decisions by the Federal Administrative Disputes Court. On one hand, the court clearly backed the ruling which backed his decision to ignore the decree calling for a fund to pay external debts with federal reserves. 

Pero, por otro, hay interpretaciones contradictorias sobre los alcances del fallo de la Cámara en torno al decreto que lo había removido de la entidad monetaria. "No entra más", aseguró esta noche en forma tajante el jefe de Gabinete, Aníbal Fernández.

But on the other, there are contradictory interpretations about the effect of the Court’s ruling concerning the decree which had removed him from the Bank.   "He will not return," Cabinet Chief Anibal Fernandez said unequivocally. 

Clearly the judiciary  does not want to enter into the political arena. While supporting the Central Bank director´s decision to deny La Presidenta´s request, the matter of his removal as demanded by the Casa Rosada as a consequence is a decision for the executive and legislative branches.

The opposition-dominated and newly-seated Congress has its first challenge from La Presidenta. The people elected them last June to resist Kirchnerismo.

Will they? Or will they prove to be no different from the Kirchner-dominated Congress before them?
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Doomsday Clock Adjusted in Face of Less Global Security

Implicit in the Doomsday Clock of the Bullentin of Atomic Scientists is that the world teeters on the brink of nuclear war and the United States is the culprit. Wrong-o!

Mr. Obama was cited as the main reason for the one-minute adjustment away from midnight, supposedly the Zero Hour for nuclear war. His nuclear stance at this point, while encouraging to the board of atomic scientists, will increase, not decrease, the chances for conflict.

It takes courage, not hope, for global security to prevail in the world. The enemies of a peaceful global order hope its defenders are swayed by such empty symbolism of changing clock hands.

The march of nuclear weapons and increasingly long-range ballistic missiles to deliver these payloads continues unabated as the Western powers are content with talking endlessly while their enemies build up their capability to strike first.

That is not an occasion to celebrate by moving the clock hand backward. That is a guarantee to move the clock hand forward in an increasingly dangerous because of the current US president´s pusillanimity.
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Hitler? A scapegoat. Stalin? I can empathise. Oliver Stone stirs up history | Film | The Guardian

It is dangerous when Hollywood recasts history to fit a film director´s political philosophy.  The Guardian of the UK published a disturbing interview with Oliver Stone as recounted in its story: Hitler? A scapegoat. Stalin? I can empathise. Oliver Stone stirs up history.

One excerpt is a slap at every Allied veteran who faced down the Axis powers, or lost buddies in the at Anzio, Normandy, Battle of the Bulge, and the German massacre at Malmedy.

"Hitler is an easy scapegoat throughout history and it's been used cheaply," he said. Then he mentioned the S word. "Stalin has a complete other story. Not to paint him as a hero, but to tell a more factual representation. He fought the German war machine more than any person."

While Mr. Stone is flipping through history texts for the "proper context" of Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin, GSM suggests he include the  Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (named after the foreign ministers of each respective country) between the USSR and Nazi Germany. The secret protocols of the so-called  Nazi-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact carved up Eastern Europe into spheres of influence and opened up the invasion on Poland just over a week later. An original of the pact was found in Soviet archives in 1992.

Two of the murderous madmen in the twentieth century were partners at the beginning of the war and there was actually negligible difference between the two totalitarian regimes.

Yes, the Soviets now Russians can contend correctly to a point, they bore the brunt of stopping Hitler after Operation Barbarosa, Hitler´s fateful invasion of Russia in June 1941.However, after the Normandy invasion, the US, Britain, Canada, France, and other non-Soviet allies were much closer to Germany. The two front war with the US-led forces in the West and yes, the Soviet Red Army in the East together, doomed a bombed-out Germany reduced to sending old men and children to fight.

It is instructive however to remember Stalin´s initial moral (and strategic) bargain with the devil in Berlin and that he only turned against the "German war machine" after getting over the shock of its invasion of his homeland. An innocent angel he is not.

A "proper context" is how the Allies - the freedom lovers - led by the United States crushed both Nazism and eventually Communism in the Cold War after a titanic struggle lasting 46 years, one of the most significant events in the last century. 

However, Mr. Stone´s study of history, given his past propaganda films, is suspect and only does a disservice to individuals who will never get the "truth" in a public school and too often rely on movies for knowledge, sadly.
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Expect UK´s Brown to Call General Election Soon

 United Kingdom Prime Minister Gordon Brown (Labour Party) survived yet another "coup" just last week, his fourth,  by former Labour ministers, but was left severely wounded. He is fighting tooth and nail for his political life. Such is the winter of Mr. Brown´s discontent.

Expect him to call national elections before the June deadline. Speculation is rife among UK political watchers and the spirited press. A revitalized and healed Britain is in the interest of global security. The longer he waits the worse for him and his party.

Mr. Brown succeeded Tony Blair in June 2007 and must call a national election by June. Part of the electorate´s unease with Mr. Brown is that it had no say in who replaced Mr. Blair. From the beginning, it seemed his term would be cut short by his own party´s challenges though.

Mr. David Cameron, who leads the Tory Party, the somewhat conservative alternative and lost in the woods after the feckless John Major unceremoniously replaced Margaret Thatcher in 1990, has profited from Labour protracted internal squabbles.

As in the United States, the people are hungry for honest, ethical leadership, and a clear governing vision. The United Kingdom is in a foul mood as the recession continues to deepen, shrinking at the fastest rate in 30 years. Labour is out of ideas after three successive general election victories. It is time for change.

The United Kingdom has a parliamentary system. After a general election and depending on the percentage of representation from seats in the House of Commons (the lower house), the winning party with a majority chooses its leader, the new prime minister of the country. There is no fixed time for the prime minister as long as he or she commands the confidence of Parliament. However, Parliament must face a general election called by the prime minister every 5 years. The last was in 2005.

Why will Mr. Brown dissolve Parliament and call for a general election sooner than the June deadline?

Because the arguments laid out by the two former cabinet ministers who pleaded for an internal vote of no-confidence (the so-called "coup") last week are sound:

(1) "continued speculation" over the next election is damaging Labour;
(2) "determined and united parliamentary party" needed to present a program to the electorate.

The British government is paralyzed by electoral uncertainty.There is not a glint of good news for the embattled Mr. Brown. Nothing seems to work. Labour is exhausted like the Tories after Thatcher-Major in the 1990s when the boyish  Tony Blair proffered a "new" Labour and won. Perhaps Deputy Leader Harriet Harman will become the new fresh face for Labour.

When Mr. Brown calls the general, he is likely to also announce his retirement to clear out the cobwebs for his party to carry on. GSM does not see a "hung Parliament." The Tories will win a clear majority in the Commons as their poll numbers continue to increase with each Brown blunder.

It is hoped the new UK prime minister follows in the mold of Churchill and Thatcher. He shows the courage of his convictions to challenge the island nation to once again summon the vigor to overcome as generations before and places the UK´s interests ahead of the Continent´s.

Are you ready, Mr. Cameron, for that august task?
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Showdown in Buenos Aires

 La Presidenta Cristina Kirchner who succeeded her husband in power in 2007 seeks US$6.57B of US$ 47.54B in the last pocket untapped - the Central Bank reserves- to pay Argentina´s debts.

Her latest quick-cash scheme set off an institutional crisis when she fired the Central Bank Director, Martín Redrado, last week when he refused the Casa Rosada´s request (demand). The opposition Congress which finally was seated six months after La Presidenta hurried up parliamentary elections from October to June for political advantage (suffering a stunning electoral defeat instead) sought judicial action to block the cash grab since the reserves are under legislative, not executive branch control.

La Presidenta thus has jeopardized the independence of the Central Bank, the last economic institution with any credibility in the country and ran afoul early of the opposition-controlled Congress. Not leaving the judicial branch out of the action, when Judge María José Sarmiento reinstated Mr. Redrado as Central Bank Director, the police visited her house to harass when she affirmed that the Casa Rosada would have to wait till Monday to appeal her decision.

In 2008, La Presidenta emptied the retirement accounts of Argentines to pay for her priorities. Statism is not the prescription for Argentina's woes. World history repudiates this folly.

Before the last Parliament expired, she sought to curb the press and now faces a tumultuous year before her supposed re-election campaign in 2011.Criticism is intolerable.

Argentina suffered an intractable economic challenge before the Kirchners arrived, but husband and wife have benefited handsomely (un vertiginoso crecimiento de la fortuna familiar) while the common Argentine continues to lose ground and faces continual destitution.

As their number one press enemy El Clarín opined recently, the problem now facing the presidential power duo is cómo gobernar sin plata y sin mayorías (how to govern without money and without majorities).

The showdown in Buenos Aires weighs on more than the future of La Presidenta, but the whole of Argentina to finally recover from the humiliating fall in the disastrous economic crisis of 2001.
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The Venezuelan Quagmire

Venezuela continues to suffer the gross mismanagement and complete incompetence of el máximo líder, Hugo Chavez, as its quagmire deepened on the energy and economic fronts last week.

Despite having the world´s sixth proven oil reserves and even a larger(170 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas, Venezuela faces an acute energy crisis. English -language news accounts single out one dam as the linchpin of energy supply while others paint a picture of imminent collapse of the energy infrastruture. Not only do businesses face a 9pm shut off of power, bureaucrats are now scheduled for a five hour workday.

Adding to the country´s economic woes, the truly signifcant news was Mr. Chavez´s summary devaluation the currency on Friday night, el viernes rojo (Red Friday) by 50%.  The bolivar has already dropped from 4 to nearly 7.5 to the US dollar. The New York Federal Reserve has an excellent article on the motives and effects of devaulation or revaluation of a currency.

However, in the special case of Chavez´s Venezuela, the Spanish-language press is very useful to track down the transparent motivations - self-preservation.

According to an economist close to the opposition, the revaluation darle más plata al Gobierno sacándosela del bolsillo de la gente. El economista Orlando Ochoa añadió que con esta medida el Gobierno duplicará sus ingresos en un año de elecciones parlamentarias.
...gives more money to the government by taking more from the people. Economist Orlando Ochoa added that this measure will double its revenues  in a year of parliamentary elections.  

As the mayor of Caracas stated following the move, "Quien necesite comprar algo el día de mañana, le costará el doble." Anyone who needs to buy something this morning, it will cost double.  More poverty for the people, a fine socialist model for others in Latin America to emulate.

In order to deflect attention away from the country´s dire economic straits and his cruel misrule, Mr. Chavez accused the United States last week of violating its airspace with a P-3 Orion spy plane and purportedly brandished a photo as evidence. Even The Netherlands was weaved into the zany Chavez narrative since tourist haven Aruba is supposedly a base for these spy planes.

While Mr. Chavez fancies himself as the successor of the Gray Wolf in La Habana to continue the struggle for  la revolución in one manner, thankfully he is half as clever and smart. Unfortunately for the Venezuelan productive class, the country must pay the ultimate price for Chavez's shenanigans.
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Global Security Headlines - 01-08-10

French to English Translation courtesy of Professor Winn


Le Soudan menacé d'implosion
Sudan Threatend with Implosion

Le Soudan, plus grand pays d'Afrique gorgé de ressources pétrolières, pourrait imploser dans un an à l'issue d'un référendum clé sur la sécession du Sud du pays qui vit toujours dans la crainte d'un retour à la guerre civile.

Sudan, the largest source of petroleum in Africa, could implode in a year over an important referendum on the South´s secession in a country always living in fear of a return to civil war.

Don't discount Europe's commitment to Afghanistan

Obama's Year One: Contra

America's challenges are coming to a head

The Carter Syndrome

Think Again: Nuclear Weapons

Yemeni elite dismiss idea of U.S. military intervention

Some Notes on a Philosophy of Leadership (pdf)

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When will Zapatero Learn His Cuban Lesson?

In 2004, la isla heralded the election of socialista José Luis Rodrigo Zapatero as the new president of Spain in the aftermath of the 3/11 bombings of the Atocha subway station in Madrid by Al Qaeda.

Spain reversed course from the previous rightist Partido Popular (PP) and began a diplomatic dance with Cuba. Time and again, countries dealing with La Habana get burned.

In 2002, former Presidente of Mexico, Vincente Fox, learned that the coy dictator Fidel can pull a few tricks when he released the audio of a taped telephone conversation of Fox trying to persuade Castro to cut short a summit meeting so as to avoid crossing paths with then US President George W. Bush. Sneaky.

Regarding Spain, La Habana found a pliant European leader with a modicum of ideological affinity and thus Zapatero was maneuvered into granting diplomatic cover to break its relative isolation and find wiggle room in the respectable European Union. Spain under Zapatero flakked for Cuba in the European Parliament.

Lately, Spain still has not recognized the presidential elections in Honduras in wake of the Mel Zelaya´s ouster for his extra-constitutional shenanigans. Mr. Zelaya was a new recruuit for the Castro-Chavez Club in Latin America. Thus, Spain defers to La Habana´s view on the matter.


Yesterday, the Spanish national dailies reported another barring of a Spanish socialist European Parliament member visiting Cuba: Cuba prohíbe entrar al eurodiputado español Luis Yáñez (Cuba bars entry of Spanish Eurodeputy Luis Yañez) - El Pais.

The cheekiest part of this - it comes three days after Spain assumed the EU presidency in which - if you can believe it - Zapatero hopes to strengthen EU ties with Cuba!

And this was not la isla´s first snub of a Eurodeputy.

Here is one more factoid to show Castro, Inc.´s appreciation for the EU´s help in propping up the criminal regime in La Habana: "The EU is Cuba's largest trading partner, with a third of all trade, almost one half of foreign direct investment and more than half of all tourists coming from Europe."

Playing with fire means eventually getting burned.
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Cuba limps through 2009

In our post, Strategic Questions 2010, we questioned the longevity of Castro, Inc.

The "demented experiment" of  Castroism has "virtually destroyed" the island's economy  and wrecked the lives of its people with human rights abuses.

According to a media report, Cuba faced worst economic crisis in 2009, the drop in nickel prices, less tourism, and the global financial crisis hit the la isla hard. La Habana never recuperated from the hurricanes in 2008, too. Above all, Castroism - communist kleptocracy with little human freedom- is an unmitigated fiasco.

China is Cuba´s main banker and Belarus sports credits as well for cars and machinery. Banks like Lloyds TSB in countries friendly to and with offices in the US have faced pressure to sever ties or face prosecution, at least until the Obama Administration.

Reuters reported a 1.4% increase in the Cuban economy as opposed to the 1.7% projected, but adds la isla uses"una fórmula especial para calcular el PIB (a special formula to calculate the GDP). No doubt they do.

Until the billionaires Fidel and now nominal Presidente Raúl Castro leave the scene, Cuba and the other states in the region emulating Castro, Inc. are doomed to a cruel and punishing existence.
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Blair and Bush Were Right on Saddam

History will smile upon the removal of Iraqi dictator Saddam "Butcher of Baghdad" Hussein by US President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair in the Second Gulf War, "Operation Iraqi Freedom," beginning in 2003.

The current Chilcot inquiry in the United Kingdom (the third one now) is an attempt to rewage a war that was just and has already been fought. It is nothing more than political revenge and retribution.

The aim is not the "truth." The aim is to gather more "evidence" to try Mr. Bush and Mr. Blair plus former Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary David Rumsfeld in an international tribunal as war criminals. The International Left wants to criminalize policy decisions of those with whom they disagree.

The nub of the controversey swirls around the apparent absence of WMDs in Iraq which was part of the argument against Saddam. Saddam attempted to assassinate US President George H. Bush after Gulf War I on a post-war visit to Kuwait in 1993 which is offense enough to topple a foreign regime.

In an interview with UK Channel 4 Mr. Blair, in a preemptive shot, responded to his critics, again. Mr. Blair will testify this month before the commission.

The intense fire of criticism of the Iraq War saved Iran and Syria from the same fate and the world is more dangerous.

At least Mr. Obama and Mr. Brown, Mr. Blair´s successor, do not have to face a nuclear Iraq and a soon-to-be nuclear Iran at the same time no thanks to the permanent anti-war protesters no matter how egregiously brutal the regimes they shill for are.
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US Gives Iran More Chances

I suppose the United States is not too proud (or powerful) to beg as evidenced by this article in the New York Times: U.S. Sees an Opportunity to Press Iran on Nuclear Fuel.

Please, please Teheran...Sanctions are an excuse to avoid facing the real issue and do not work. 

The Western powers' "engagement" with Iran throughout the last two decades is littered with deadlines given to and deadlines passed by Iran. Teheran is an expert at this game by now, however deadly the game is. Even a play of Web 2.0 Social Media in a YouTube message for the Iranian New Year did not affect them.

The West issued deadlines. Iran continued to build it military-civilian nuclear program and tested ballistic missiles with ever greater ranges.

Going Forward
Now in 2010, Iran can reach southern Europe and eventually all of Europe and the "Great Satan," the United States. The US military is already simulating an Iranian attack after the last Sajjil-2 missile test.

Teheran is happy to play the game of more chances until the day arrives when the West´s chances to stop Iran are gone.

Related Post: Net Assessment: Iran.

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