Potential for Apocalypse: Is War between Iran and Israel Inevitable?

- SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

This is a fascinating analysis of the two disparate personalities that hold a key to the future of the strategic Mid East region.

The broader question posited - the "collision course with potentially horrific consequences" -- puts global security analysts on edge and boosts GSM's warnings about the current regime in Iran.

"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may seem very different, but they are united in their apocalyptic religious visions. Their respective beliefs may be propelling them on a collision course with potentially horrific consequences."

Iran and North Korea: Twin Global Security Challenges

Iran and North Korea: Two Sides of the Same Coin

"So the principles of warfare are:

Do not depend on the enemy not coming, but depend on our readiness against him.

Do not depend on the enemy not attacking, but depend on our position that cannot be attacked."

Sun Tzu, Chinese military thinker


Events this month have confirmed Global Security Monitor's fears about the pressing twin challenges to the current global order: Iran and North Korea.

Friday's sham election in Iran (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad' s "victory") and the effrontery of North Korea (threats of nuclear attack) since its apparently successful long-range missile test earlier this month ratchet up the possibility of spiraling crises with a potentially catastrophic endgame.

Global Security Monitor maintains intercontinental ballistic missile capability and nuclear arms in the hands of rogue regimes Iran and North Korea together make a cataclysmic cocktail.

The flaccid response by the fledgling Obama administration in Washington only encourages Tehran and Pyongyang's aggression. Blind optimism cannot temper blind ambition.

Immobilizing the enemy without war, wrote Sun Tzu, is the greatest military feat.

Every day the global community delays in confronting the twin global challenges of Iran and North Korea raises the costs of doing so and edges the world closer to a nuclear disaster.

Germany at the Crossroads

credit: Lonely Planet
Translation Courtesy: Buenos Aires Translator

Alemania se desentiende de Europa · ELPAÍS.com:
"Germany washes its hands of Europe" - from El Pais.com (Madrid)

por: Joschka Fischer, del Partido Verde, fue ministro de Asuntos Exteriores y vicecanciller de Alemania.

by: Joschka Fischer, Green Party memeber, former foreign minister and vice-chancellor of Germany

"Qué le ocurre a Alemania?", se preguntan cada vez más a uno y otro lado del Atlántico. Sin embargo, en Berlín nadie entiende la pregunta.

"What is happening to Germany?" asks both sides of the Atlantic. However, no one in Berlin understands the question.

Mr. Fishcher plants difficult questions that could determine the fate of the European Union, the collection of western and eastern democracies occupying a majority of the "world island:"

¿acaso puede Alemania permitirse de verdad el lujo de dejar que fracase la ampliación de la UE a la Europa Oriental?

Can Germany allow the luxury of a failed EU expansion in East Europe?

¿Acaso puede permitirse los lujos de una crisis mortalmente peligrosa del euro, de un mercado común puesto en peligro por el creciente proteccionismo o de la intromisión de Rusia en los asuntos de los países de la Europa Oriental vecinos de la UE?

Can it allow the luxuries of a fatally dangerous crisis with the euro, a commom market endangered by increasing protectionism or the interference of Russia in the affairs of East Europe, neighbors of the EU?

¿Acaso puede aplicar de verdad una política nacional independiente en Oriente Próximo y en África?

Can it really pursue a politically independent policy in East Europe and in Africa?

¿O desempeñar un papel eficaz para resolver asuntos mundiales, como la lucha contra el cambio climático o la creación de un nuevo orden financiero?

Or can it play an important role in the solving global problems like the fight against climate change or the creation of a new financial order?

Mr. Fischer concludes that EU memeber nations need to invest their national interests in a stronger EU for future success, but it is not clear Germany will do so.

Mexico Under Seige

Balacera en Acapulco
courtesy: Buenos Aires Translator

Analysis:

Can Mexico endure more? The Swine Flu. The Global Economic Crisis. The endless drug war now spreading into tourist zones.

Tourism surged in 2008, but negative press this year threatens these gains. A war for the control of Mexico is underway (for a while now) and no victor seems apparent.

Yesterday, far from the firefights along the US-Mexico border, a battle royale between federales and reputed narcos burst into the open in Acapulco's oldest sector where famous tourist hotels are located. The narco war now threatens to crowd out the tourist dollar, a vital component of the state's economy.

As per our previous analysis, questions remains whether the Mexican state can in fact "win" the drug war. There is no persuasive evidence at this time.


BBC Mundo:

Acapulco, el famoso centro vacacional de México, fue escenario de un fuerte enfrentamiento entre supuestos narcotraficantes y miembros del ejército.

Acapulco, the famous Mexican vacation destination, was the scene of an intense confrontation among supposed narcotraficantes and members of the army.

Al menos 16 hombres armados y dos soldados murieron durante el tiroteo que se produjo en plena zona hotelera.

At least 16 armed men and two soldiers died during the firefight in the hotel zone.

Varios soldados y miembros del público resultaron heridos durante la batalla en el barrio viejo de la ciudad.

Some soldiers and members of the public were wounded during the battle in the oldest section of the city.

La corresponsal de BBC Mundo en México, Cecilia Barría, informó que la balacera se prolongó por más de cuatro horas provocando alarma entre los turistas de la zona.

BBC Mundo's correspondent in Mexico, Cecilia Barria, said the shootout continued for more than four hours causing alarm among tourists in the zone.