Global Security Headlines

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Persian Peril Percolates While West Wanes

"J'espère que ces négociations vont se poursuivre, que les éléments sataniques ne pourront pas les perturber, car le régime sioniste et les puissances dominatrices sont mécontents", a déclaré le président iranien, selon Isna.

´´I hope these negotiations continue [and] that the Satanic forces will not be able to disrupt them because the Zionist regime and domineering powers are dissatisfied.´´

´´Washington is expected to continue to engage Tehran toward a deal on Iran's nuclear program, according to both government sources and American sources accompanying U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on her lightning visit to Israel Saturday´´ -, 11/01/2009

´´Iran must demonstrate through concrete steps that it will live up to its responsibilities with regard to its nuclear program´ - US President Obama, 10/02/2009 after P-5+1 talks in Geneva.

The Teheran Tyrants know they have won. Iran skipped providing an answer by the October 23 deadline on the ridiculous nuclear enrichment deal. More defiance from the Teheran Tyrants and yet the Obama Administration reportedly (from Haaretz above) is still on the talk-a-thon track. Incredible!

The Western powers at this late date face two unpalatable options: 1) worthless sanctions and 2) a military campaign to cripple Teheran´s nuclear capabilities. The first option is more likely because the United States led by President Obama has no intellectual curiosity about how the world actually works and worse anyone in the his inner circle who does.

A military campaign is fraught with complexity and difficulty given the extensive layout of Iran´s nuclear facilities across the Persian state and the built-in redundancy. It would require a sustained operation to be effective. The repercussions with Russia and China have to be weighed beforehand as well.

When the Bush Administration did not follow up Iraq with confronting Iran more forcefully (as if killing US soldiers in Iraq was not an act of war), the mullahs in Teheran knew the coast was clear. An inexperienced president from a traditionally anti-war (Democrat) party was manna from heaven after the 2008 US elections.

World history is replete with examples when a determined foe is not confronted until the last hour. It is incredible to believe suddenly Iran will scrap its crown jewel overnight to please the Western powers after investing billions of oil dollars in research, materiel, nuclear scientists, and advanced ballistic missiles to deliver their lethal cargo.

Its protectors in the proxy war with the United States, Russia and China namely, provide Teheran the cover required to defy Washington. The smart bet is to believe the naive US president does not have the temerity to launch and all-out military assault given his mounting domestic worries including sinking poll ratings. Leaders buck polls and do what is required regardless, a profile in courage the current president lacks.

As neighboring Afghanistan and Pakistan teeter on the brink, Iran´s defiance cannot be welcome in Washington. Thus the Persian peril percolates while the West wanes in both influence and credibility in global security affairs.

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